Philippines awaits corruption verdict on ex-president Estrada |
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Mon, 10 Sep 2007 07:27
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MANILA (ThomsonFinancial) - A bitter chapter in Philippine politics comes to an end later this week when the verdict in the six-year corruption trial of deposed president Joseph Estrada is handed down.Either way, the verdict, which is to be announced Wednesday, will have ramifications for his successor President Gloria Arroyo, analysts say.If he is found guilty, Arroyo faces the spectre of open rebellion from Estrada's legions of poor supporters.An acquittal would meanwhile leave Arroyo vulnerable to renewed opposition claims that Estrada was deposed in a coup by the middle class, business elites, church and the military.The 70-year-old former movie star, known as 'Erap' to his legion of fans, was deposed in a popular revolt in 2001 amid allegations he amassed 80 million dollars through tax kickbacks and bribes from illegal gambling operators.Elected in 1998 with the biggest margin in Philippine election history he has repeatedly denied the allegations and played up to the masses as the underdog who was illegally removed from office.Arroyo was sworn in to finish the remainder of Estrada's six-year term, and subsequently survived two military coups. She was re-elected in 2004 amid hotly-contested polls marred by allegations of cheating and widespread fraud.But while her popularity remains in the doldrums, Arroyo has survived challenges to her presidency.Analysts say this is because Filipinos are simply tired of political bickering or do not want to upset the status quo.But if Estrada is cleared by the charges 'that would now mean that Arroyo has been an illegal president after all,' said political analyst Antonio Abaya of the Foundation for Transparency and Public Accountability.Freeing Estrada could also derail Arroyo's economic programme and leave her vulnerable to legal attacks.'So an acquittal for Estrada would be very difficult for Arroyo.'A conviction on the other hand retains the legality of Arroyo's presidency while leaving room for her to maneuver and let Estrada save face through a presidential pardon,' Abaya told AFP.Arroyo's aides have been floating a pardon offer in the press, weeks ahead of the verdict and say the president's economic agenda included reconciliation with former enemies.A senior cabinet adviser has also visited Estrada, a sign that Abaya says some compromise was being arranged.However economist Alejandro Lichauco warned that a conviction for Estrada was a 'lose-lose situation' for the government sitting on a social volcano that could explode through massive street protests by his supporters.'It has to do with the desperation and hardship of the masses and their perception that there isn't anyone else they could look to except Erap,' Lichauco recently said, arguing that Estrada was the 'physical incarnation' of the poors' dream for a better life.'Remove Erap then, as this government intends to do, and you literally snatch from the masses the one and only precious thing they have, fragile as it is,' Lichauco said.He said that while a conviction may not immediately translate to open rebellion the government would do well to prepare for that eventuality.'Hunger has made the revolt of the masses inevitable and in a matter of time, Erap's conviction would simply accelerate the process by which that revolt comes into being,' Lichauco said.Astro del Castillo, director of the Association of Securities Analysts of the Philippines, said the business community remained jittery over the looming verdict.While the business elite would respect the outcome, it prefers Estrada be found guilty to send a strong signal to investors that the Philippines was serious about rooting out corruption.'On the other hand, we are worried over a possible backlash and how it would affect confidence,' he said.afp/clPhilippines-Estrada-politics-trial-corruptionAFP For more information and to contact AFX: www.afxnews.com and www.afxpress.com
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