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Political uncertainty in Germany as no party gains clear mandate

BERLIN:  Germany is in a state of political uncertainty after the opposition Christian Democratic Party gained a narrow majority over Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democratic Party with Schroeder refusing to concede a defeat.

Published :
Mon, 19 Sep 2005 16:05
By : Andrew Stead
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BERLIN: Germany is in a state of political uncertainty after the opposition Christian Democratic Party gained a narrow majority over Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democratic Party with Schroeder refusing to concede a defeat.

The Electoral Commission, announcing the official results, said the Christian Democrats, led by Angela Merkel, have a three-seat advantage in the German parliament -- 225 seats against 222 of the Social Democrats. Both the figures fell short of the seats required for a majority to rule the country.

Merkel will have the first chance at government formation, but political pundits visualise a stalemate in the light of such a fractured verdict. The Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, got 35.2 per cent of the vote compared with 34.3 per cent for Social Democratic Party.

The results affected the country's markets with the euro falling over half a per cent to the month's low, while the stock exchanges also felt the impact.

Analysts fear Merkel, even if she is able to form a government, may not be able to pursue with her proposed reform measures. She may have to make sacrifices in order to have political deals to form a government and become the first woman leader.

Schroeder, who got better-than-expected results, said he will never share power with Merkel. He said his party would study options for a power-sharing arrangement under which he could retain his position as the Chancellor.

Notwithstanding such categorical stands, analysts are of the opinion Germany would in all probability see "grand coalition" of Christian Democrats, its sister party, the Christian Social Union, and the Social Democrats.

Merkel in her pre-election propaganda had promised to cut the country's bureaucracy, liberalise rules on firing and cut payroll costs to rejuvenate the country's economy. Schroeder had favoured
gradual reforms, as he has done earlier, and which have started showing results. In case the coalition talks fail, Germany will have another first, a new election.

Election in Dresden is to be held next month, but the outcome is not going to have much of a bearing on the existing situation. Merkel can think of reaching the magical majority figures -- 50 --
with the help one of the left-wing parties. However, if she fails, rules stipulate that the parliament cannot elect anyone else in three tries. There can be an appointment of a minority chancellor by President Horst Koehler as minority chancellor.

Analysts say the verdict is a clear indication that Merkel's package for development and growth -- a shake-up in Germany's labor market -- did not work. She wanted to introduce rights for managements to fire people, for companies to opt out of regional bargaining and a lower payroll tax for unemployment insurance. She also wanted to reduce the top income tax rate from 42 per cent to 39 per cent and the bottom rate 15 per cent to 12 per cent. However, these did not work well with the welfare-oriented mindset of the German people.


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