Nuclear power to remain important energy source

Nuclear power to remain important energy source - IAEA

	Published : Tue, 23 Oct 2007 16:18 By : Agencies Print this Story

VIENNA (Thomson Financial) - Nuclear power is to remain a major source of energy around the world in the coming decades, especially given the concerns over climate change and energy security, the UN nuclear watchdog said.

'Nuclear power's prominence as a major energy source will continue over the next several decades,' the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a new report, entitled 'Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the period up to 2030.'

In the report, the IAEA makes both low-case and high-case projections, taking into consideration various different scenarios, which show that nuclear power production is expected to expand by at least 25 pct between now and 2030, or by as much as 93 pct.

Much of the growth will be fuelled by energy-hungry economies like China, India, South Korea and Japan, said the IAEA's energy analyst Alan McDonald.

'China and India have booming economies, booming populations and growing energy demand,' McDonald said.

'They basically need to develop all the energy sources they can.'

At present, nuclear power met only a small proportion of those countries' energy needs, namely 2 pct in China and 3 pct in India, the analyst said.

'China is experiencing huge energy growth and is trying to expand every source it can, including nuclear power,' the report said.

China currently had four reactors under construction and was planning a nearly five-fold expansion by 2020, the IAEA said.

Nevertheless, with China growing so fast, nuclear power would still amount to only 4 pct of total electricity by 2020, the agency projected.

Out of the 31 new nuclear power plants currently under construction around the world, half of them -- 16 in all -- were being built in developing countries, with most of those in China and India, McDonald said.

As for Japan and South Korea, the problem was not so much a booming population, as a lack of indigenous oil and gas resources.

'For them, nuclear power is attractive for energy security reasons, and for Japan in particular it is attractive in reducing greenhouse gas emissions,' the analyst said.

The picture was much more complex in Europe, the IAEA expert said.

In the high-case projection, which assumed that Britain would replace all of its old, retiring nuclear power plants with new ones and that Germany would keep its plants running, nuclear capacity was projected to expand by 20 pct by 2030.

But if Britain replaced its retiring nuclear power plants with other sources of energy, such as natural gas, and if Germany and Belgium were to phase out their nuclear programmes, 'then you get a decrease (in nuclear capacity) of 40 pct by 2030,' McDonald said.

In North America, expansion of nuclear capacity would remain are latively modest' in both scenarios, ranging from about 15-50 pct, McDonald predicted.

The US currently has the most nuclear power plants in operation around the world, 104 in all, with a further 18 in Canada.

Despite the anticipated strong growth in nuclear generating capacity around the world in the coming years, the proportion of nuclear power to overall electricity production was actually projected to decline slightly, the IAEA said.

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Nuclear power to remain important energy source - IAEA