DATAWATCH - Hong Kong Jan exports may mark start of downtrend - BEA economist |
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Tue, 27 Feb 2007 11:36
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HONG KONG (XFN-ASIA) - Hong Kong's January exports data could mark the start of a downtrend for the near term, said Paul Tang, an economist at the Bank of East Asia (BEA).'This is a possible cause for alarm considering the low base of comparison for the month due to distortions created by the Chinese New Year,' he said.The government announced today that exports grew 9.2 pct year-on-year in January in value terms, slowing down from a 13.7 pct growth in the previous month.Tang said he expected January export growth at 18 pct year-on-year as demand for goods in the weeks leading to the Chinese New Year holidays is usually strong.'This is not conclusive, but the low figure could mean the start of the slowing of exports for Hong Kong,' he added.He said the exports data for February should give a clearer picture of the trend.'It could be that the deceleration has been quite obvious because exports for November and December recorded double-digit growth. A downward trend in exports may be established if February data will come in lower,' he added.The government said that exports grew to 207.4 bln hkd in January, with re-exports up 12.5 pct at 199.0 bln hkd and domestic exports down 35.8 pct at 8.4 bln hkd.Imports during the month rose 14.1 pct year-on-year to 211.8 bln hkd, after a year-on-year increase of 14.5 pct in December, it said.A visible trade deficit of 4.4 bln hkd was recorded in January.Tang said he expects exports in the coming months to register single-digit growth after robust performance last year.'I expect China to implement a tightening in export policy as it has indicated plans to narrow its huge trade surplus with the US. This could have a serious effect on Hong Kong,' he added.He said a slowdown in the US economy could also weigh on Hong Kong's exports.Tang forecasts exports growth this year at 6 pct, against 8 pct achieved in 2006.(1 usd = 7.8 hkd)leonora.walet@xfn.comlw/rc
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