OUTLOOK European, US data due Tuesday, Oct 30

OUTLOOK European, US data due Tuesday, Oct 30

	Published : Mon, 29 Oct 2007 17:06 By : Agencies Print this Story

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - GERMANY

-Unemployment is expected to continue its downward trend, with the adjusted jobless total forecast to decline 30,000 in October after September's 50,000 drop. This would be in line with the average monthly decline over the past six months. The adjusted unemployment rate is seen easing to 8.7 pct, which would be the lowest figure since May 1993, from 8.8 pct last month.

But the pace of the fall in unemployment is expected to slow in 2008 as economic growth loses momentum, economists said.

ITALY

-Italian producer prices are expected to edge up 0.2 pct in September, but this will lead to a sharp acceleration in the year-on-year rate of increase to 3.0 pct from 1.9 pct. Base effects related to declining oil prices in Sept 2006 explain the surge in the year-on-year increase.

SPAIN

-Spain's HICP inflation rate is forecast to accelerate to 3.1 pct in October from 2.7 pct in September, boosted by rising food and energy prices.

-The Confederation of British Industry is set to show that activity on the UK's high streets is easing in the wake of higher interest rates and the recent credit crunch.

In its monthly distributive trades survey, the CBI is expected to reveal that a balance of +9 pct of retailers will report sales were higher in October than in the same period a year ago, down on September's +12 pct. The expected sales balance for November is expected to slip to +12 pct from +17 pct.

-Consumer confidence is expected to be down again in October, with the Conference Board's index forecast to fall to 99.4 from 99.8 in September.

'With home prices falling, job growth trending down, equity prices dropping from their post-credit-turmoil highs, crimped credit availability and heating bills poised to rise this winter, consumer confidence is expected to buckle,' said Michael Gregory of BMO Capital Markets.

jessica.mortimer@thomson.com

jkm/rw

The copying, republication or redistribution of Thomson Financial News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial News.