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NEW YORK (Reuters) –
The U.S. manufacturing sector is expected to have grown but at a slower pace in November in a still fragile recovery from the longest recession in decades, according to a Reuters' poll of economists.
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index reading is estimated at 55.0 in November, decelerating from 55.7 in October, according to the poll's median forecast.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
Estimates from the 70 economists polled ranged from a low of 52.0 to a high of 56.2.
The Institute for Supply Management will release the report at 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday.
A sample of forecasts and analysis on the upcoming ISM manufacturing index follows:
IAN SHEPHERDSON, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, HIGH FREQUENCY ECONOMICS:
FORECAST: 57.0
"The rebound in the ISM has been dramatic, and if sustained, the current level of the new orders index appears to be consistent with real spending on equipment and software rising at a year-over-year rate of about 10 percent."
"That's easily enough to matter, because it accounts for some 7 percent of gross domestic product."
"The bad news is that the surge in the ISM is not consistent with other indicators. First, the fantastically depressed level of industrial capacity utilization is hard to square with a rebound in capital spending."
"The rate of growth of capital spending will be nearer to zero than the 10 percent implied by the ISM."
STEVEN WOOD, CHIEF ECONOMIST, INSIGHT ECONOMICS:
FORECAST: 55.0
"Manufacturing activity has recovered from its cyclical nadir of earlier this year and is now expanding modestly. However, there has been little acceleration in the tepid pace of this expansion. Moreover, because of the sharp declines in manufacturing between October 2008 and July 2009, the level of factory activity is still quite subdued."
(Reporting by John Parry; polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Andrew Hay)
