Friday, May 24, 2024

The World Economy Will Fall In 2021

Doubts about the implementation of fiscal stimuli hinders the work of central banks and jeopardizes the recovery

Despite the hopeful news about vaccines, the lockdowns and restrictions applied in the West and the United States are fueling fears of a new recession in the world economy.

This could increase pressure on central banks and governments to put aside other concerns and do more to stimulate demand.

Vaccines will not arrive, at the earliest, at the end of the year or the beginning of the next, meanwhile the economic situation continues to deteriorate.

Thus, the latest macro data does not accompany and show a weaker activity .

Thus, the indicators point to a double decline in the economy. This is demonstrated by the European PMIs, falling to 45 points, the exact level that separates growth and contraction, compared to the 50 points of the previous data.

These indicators generate a demand effect for more economic stimuli by politicians despite the fact that the European central banks have taken out the heavy artillery.

And in the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) it is preparing the reload of its pandemic purchasing program for December.

And it is that “while there is a lot of enthusiasm for the progress of vaccine development, it will not be the quick fix that many hope it will be,” said Singapore’s Minister of Trade and Industry, Chan Chun Sing.

“Making enough doses, then distributing and vaccinating a significant population of the world, will take years.”

For its part, the Federal Reserve could focus more of its bond purchases on term securities to lower interest rates.

Doubts about whether it will be enough.But there are concerns that central banks have run out of room to act decisively and that even easier financial conditions will not translate into an economic boost.

The International Monetary Fund warns of high asset prices and this points to a disconnect from the real economy and therefore may pose a threat to financial stability.

“There is an excess of savings and a shortage of investment”, which is the central problem facing developed economies, says Janet Yellen, who will be nominated for Treasury by Joe Biden.

Governments block fiscal policies “Our base scenario is a contraction of 4.1% for the world economy in 2020, followed by a rebound to 4.9% growth in 2021,” they point out from Bloomberg.

The problem is fiscal policy in both the United States and Europe.

A clear example is the disagreement between US lawmakers over how much more to spend as Biden prepares to take office.

President Donald Trump’s Treasury Department cut the Fed’s ability to help some credit markets last week.

In Europe, $ 2 trillion from the European Reconstruction Fund in aid is being held back by a fight over political control , sponsored by Poland and Hungary.

“Exactly at the moment when central banks around the world recognize the centrality of fiscal policy in dealing with the economic consequences of the pandemic, governments are creating difficulties to implement the next stage of their stimulus,” said Gilles Moec , chief economist at AXA.

For the United States, the pace of infections prompted JPMorgan to forecast an economic contraction.

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