Trump’s H-1B Visa Fee Rise Set to Undermine the US While Benefiting India and China

The Trump administration’s decision to introduce a $100,000 fee on every new H-1B visa application is expected to harm America’s technology and innovation leadership while boosting the competitiveness of countries such as India and China, according to Nigel Green, chief executive of global financial advisory group deVere.

“This policy is meant to shield American workers, but it’ll likely have the opposite effect,” he says.

“By pricing out the world’s brightest engineers, data scientists and AI specialists, the US is pushing the very talent that built Silicon Valley to competing economies. India and China are ready to capture the opportunity.”

The H-1B visa system has long played a central role in US growth across advanced industries, admitting around 85,000 highly skilled foreign professionals annually. Approximately 70% come from India and around 12% from China.

These professionals contribute an estimated $100 billion each year to the American economy and have founded or led the majority of US billion-dollar start-ups.

“For decades the US imported the world’s best minds while other nations paid the education costs. This advantage is now being surrendered,” Nigel Green notes.

Markets reacted quickly to the announcement. India’s Nifty 50 and Sensex indices slipped as investors considered the added costs for outsourcing companies dependent on US placements. Analysts, however, expect a rebound as multinationals shift projects offshore.

“When barriers rise in Washington, global companies don’t cancel innovation, they relocate it,” Nigel Green explains.

“Past visa restrictions led to expanded Indian delivery centres and research facilities and this hike is far larger.”

India’s technology and business-process exports already exceed $280 billion, underpinned by a stable rupee, one million new engineering graduates annually, and government support for software parks, data centres and 5G rollouts.

“India has the scale, the infrastructure and the intellectual property protections to take work that once flowed to the US,” Nigel Green says.

China is also acting quickly. Recently, Beijing launched a streamlined “K Visa” designed to attract foreign STEM talent and reverse years of brain drain. Local governments are offering research grants, tax incentives and housing subsidies to appeal to experts who might once have looked to California or Boston. “China sees a strategic opening and is wasting no time,” the deVere CEO adds.

The implications extend beyond Asia. Countries such as Canada, the UK, Germany and South Korea are all opening up easier routes for high-tech immigration. Meanwhile, US universities warn that international PhD enrolments—already accounting for over 60% of doctorates in computer science—may fall if post-study work opportunities diminish.

“Raising the cost of entry does not create domestic expertise overnight,” Nigel Green warns.

“It motivates corporations to shift high-value projects to where the talent already resides and where governments welcome it. Investment capital and research dollars follow that talent.”

He points to the likely consequences for the United States: slower development in semiconductors, biotech and AI; a decline in start-up activity; reduced tax revenues as firms relocate; and a weakening of the entrepreneurial drive that has fuelled decades of US economic dominance.

“This is a signal for investors to look closely at markets and companies positioned to benefit from the talent reallocation,” Nigel Green opines.

“Indian IT leaders, Chinese AI ventures and multinational firms with deep offshore capacity are obvious winners.

“Conversely, US companies dependent on imported expertise will face rising costs and longer development cycles.”

Nigel Green concludes: “History teaches us that protectionist barriers on skilled immigration never safeguard growth—they export it.

“The $100,000 H-1B levy will not protect American jobs; it will likely redirect innovation and investment to India, China and every country smart enough to open its doors.

“The policy is self-defeating and the global market is already adjusting.”