TBC Bank Group Shares Rally 7% as Q3 Loan Book Expansion Outpaces Forecasts in Resurgent Georgian Market

London, October 11, 2025 – TBC Bank Group PLC shares (FTSE 250-based digital banking giant with headquarters in Georgia and Uzbekistan) saw a 7 per cent leap in the rapid morning trading on Monday following third-quarter results that highlighted shotgun loan expansion and healthy profitability in its core markets of Georgia and Uzbekistan.

The Tbilisi-based lender that has found a niche in offering fintech innovation to underserved consumers disclosed a 28-per-cent year-on-year rise in its gross loan book, surpassing analyst estimates and highlighting the sustainability of the digital finance boom in Eastern Europe.

This announcement showed that it had a gross loan portfolio of GEL 11.2 billion (PS3.1 billion) on September 30, 2025, a year later. Customer deposits also increased by 24 per cent to GEL 9.8 billion, which strengthened net interest margins at 8.2 per cent, compared to the 7.9 per cent consensus.

The net profit in the quarter increased by 35 per cent to GEL 180 million, which was propelled by a 15 per cent increase in the fee revenue due to the digital services such as mobile payments and the micro-lending services. These measures were well above the prospects of 25 per cent growth in loans and GEL 165 million in profits, which provided short-term energy in the market towards the scalable model of TBC.

The stock of TBC Bank rose by 3,850 pence per share, accelerating PS1.8 billion market capitalisation by more than PS120 million and gaining momentum on the FTSE 250 by 0.5%. The rally is a culmination of an exceptional 2025, with the stock rising by 52 per cent so far, as investors place their bets on high-growth fintechs as the world rate levels off.

Q3 Momentum Signals Acceleration in Digital Banking Dominance

In a quarterly send-out, TBC Bank points to an outstanding performance that was driven by the Georgia economy, which saw GDP grow 5.2% in Q3, driven by the tourism inflow and the explosion of remittances.

The retail presence of the bank, which makes up 85 per cent of the bank loans, expanded by 32 per cent and financing of small businesses by 22 per cent as the entrepreneurs accessed cheap digital credit, and the inflation dropped to 3.1.

The adoption of digital is revolutionising financial inclusion in our markets, as asserted by CEO Vakhtang Butskhrikidze in the statement. Our active app users have surged 18 per cent. to more than 2.5 million, and that wallet share we are seizing is by customer, smooth, AI-enhanced services.

Such innovations as biometric authentication and immediate peer-to-peer transfer have reduced the acquisition costs by 12 per cent, and an additional GEL 25 million in fees were generated by cross-border remittances through cooperation with Western Union.

TBC recorded a 45% loan growth in its new venture to 450 million in Uzbekistan, taking advantage of the relaxed regulations to issue half a million digital cards. This spreads the Georgia-related risk, and Uzbekistan is now contributing 8% of group profits- two times the amount it did last year.

The non-performing loan ratio of the bank stood at 1.8, which is lower than the industry average of 2.5, because of the sophisticated credit scoring algorithms that increased collection rates by 10%.

The capital adequacy of the company is a fortress of 18.5, which is well above the Basel III level and makes it possible to propose an interim increase of dividends to 15 per cent to $0.45 per ADS.

Investor Surge Captures Fintech Lustre in New EMs

The share blast is a reflection of an increased trend towards high-yield emerging market trades, with the 6% October rise in the FTSE 250 representing a shift away from the undervalued tech giants.

The beat was heralded by traders as confirmation of TBC’s 25% ROE, European peer-leading, with one of the London-based strategists observing, TBC is a special company; its combination of expansion and caution in turbulent areas makes it an outlier; the Q3 print de-risks the 2025 projections.

With a valuation of 7 times forward earnings, TBC provides a 3.2 per cent yield, which is superior to the UK banking average, and yield chasers amid the current rate plateau of 4.75 per cent by the Bank of England.

The update anticipates a full-year guidance which is more inclined towards the high-end of the net profit of GEL 720-750 million in the future, indicating a 30% growth and a possible share buyback of up to 2 per cent of the equity.

To date, TBC has beaten off competition such as Virgin Money by 40 percentage points because Georgia’s candidacy to the EU has helped it improve investor confidence. Trading multiples imply 25% upside to analyst projections of 4,800 pence average.

Multi-year Tailwinds Strategic Expansions

TBC is expanding its growth playbook by investing 150 million dollars in the infrastructure of Uzbekistan, aiming to reach 1 million new clients in 2027 by forming embedded finance partnerships with e-commerce solutions.

Georgia in Georgia is planning to develop a remittance corridor on blockchain with the EU to be launched in Q1 2026, potentially drawing 20% of the 2 billion dollar worth of remittances annually.

Butskhrikidze highlighted sustainability: “We are using sustainability as our DNA, 40 per cent of loans are now green-tagged solar and agrotech. This is in line with Georgian requirements and accessibility of EBRD funds at less than 4% rates. Technologically, a 50 million AI upgrade will allow customisation of offerings, which will forecast a 5% increase in income based on fees.

M&A radar M&A Post-2024 acquisition of Bolt payment; TBC targeting to acquire Armenian fintechs below 200 million to empower regional moats. The opportunity to make opportunistic strikes exists because of the $400 million of liquidity.

Navigating Geopolitical and Macro Risks

Upside isn’t risk-free. The political uncertainty in Georgia -elections are due in 2026- may increase funding expenses, and forex volatility runs the risk of being exposed by the currency peg of Uzbekistan to the dollar. The 4% input inflation was eating away at margins, but 80% of exposures were hedged. NPLs are to be observed in case remittances decline during slowdowns worldwide.

Analysts remain optimistic, and the target of 5,200 pence by Peel Hunt suggests 35% potential. A note opined that the digital advantage that TBC has gives it an insulation against competitors that are heavily branch-based. However, there are some warnings about overdependence on retail (70% of assets), which calls for corporate diversification.

Eastern European banking, which grows at a 12% CAGR to $500 billion by 2028, is about to prefer disruptors, such as TBC, over the incumbents that languish in operational systems.

Greater Impact on the UK Investors in EM Fintech

TBC winning gives the FTSE 250 financials slice an incentive, gaining 8% in 2025, indicating that the UK capital is in need of EM alpha. Close Brother and other peers are trailing by 2% growth, whereas TBC has a 28% growth in loans, which highlights its outlier status among the peers.

In the case of globe-trotting portfolios, the 3.2% yield and 30% EPS curve are screaming value, and with the Q4 results in view on February 20, 2026. With cash being phased out of Tbilisi cafe life by the digital wallet, the digital wallet is not merely banking. TBC Bank is building the future of finance, one app tap at a time. Shareholders may have a Georgian spring with this rally.