Arthur Hayes Bitcoin Stance Shifts: Permabull Admits He Won’t Buy

Arthur Hayes won’t buy Bitcoin right now. Not $1. The BitMEX co-founder and notorious permabull told the Coin Stories podcast Tuesday he’s waiting on the sidelines until the Fed pivots. That’s a shift for someone who called $250,000 Bitcoin as recently as October.

“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes explained. The arthur hayes bitcoin position caught attention because Hayes built his reputation on aggressive BTC accumulation during uncertainty. Not this time.

Bitcoin traded at $69,926 when Hayes made his comments. Down 45% from October’s $126,000 all-time high. He’s concerned ongoing geopolitical tensions—specifically the US-Iran conflict—could trigger deeper selloffs. “[With] the unfortunate war between US and Iran, I think that there is a situation where the longer that this carries on, there could be a massive sell-off in equities and Bitcoin,” Hayes said.

His thesis centers on Fed policy. Hayes is waiting for monetary easing. Money printing. “The longer this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine,” he argued. “That’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin when the central banks start printing money.”

Not exactly a bearish long-term view. Just tactical patience.

Hayes distinguished between two narratives floating around crypto: “war is good for Bitcoin” versus “money printing is good for Bitcoin.” He sides with the latter. Wars don’t automatically pump Bitcoin. Central bank liquidity does. The mechanism matters.

The BitMEX founder warned Bitcoin could fall below $60,000 if tensions escalate. That level was tested briefly on February 6 before a mild bounce. Hayes thinks breaking $60k “could be sort of a big cascading of liquidations down.” Leveraged longs would get wrecked. Standard stuff when key support crumbles.

The arthur hayes bitcoin prediction for 2026 remains $250,000. He held that target through October last year despite mounting macro headwinds. Now he’s adding nuance: wait for the Fed, accumulate when liquidity returns, ride the next wave higher. Classic Hayes.

He’s unsure whether Bitcoin found its bottom. That’s rare candor from someone usually bullish without qualification. The uncertainty stems from macro, not crypto fundamentals. Fed policy drives everything right now.

Other voices disagree on timing. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe sees near-term upside tied to Nasdaq strength. “There are not many arguments left for uncertainty, and in that principle, I do think we’ll see way more upside into Bitcoin & Altcoins during the coming period,” van de Poppe said. He’s betting the rally continues.

Hayes also noted he doesn’t expect Bitcoin to stay “sub 100,000” for many more years. Long-term trajectory: up. Short-term path: choppy until the Fed capitulates.

The tension between Hayes’ long-term bullishness and short-term caution highlights the macro dominance over crypto markets right now. Bitcoin moves with liquidity, not ideology. When central banks tighten, risk assets suffer. When they ease, Bitcoin rips. Hayes has seen this play out multiple cycles.

I’ve traded through similar setups. 2019 saw the same Fed-driven chop before the pandemic money printer went brrrr. Hayes is applying that playbook: wait for the catalyst, not the price level.

The arthur hayes bitcoin call isn’t about bearish fundamentals. It’s about liquidity timing. He’s sidelined until Powell blinks. That could happen fast if geopolitical tensions force fiscal expansion. Or it could take quarters if the Fed stays hawkish.

For now, Hayes is watching Fed policy more than order books. Smart money moved to cash weeks ago. Everyone else is catching up.

Question is whether $60,000 holds if Iran tensions escalate. Break that level and the arthur hayes bitcoin scenario—liquidation cascade, sub-$60k flush, forced deleveraging—plays out fast. Hold it and the bottoming process continues.

All eyes on the Fed. And Tehran.