AMZN Stock Is Trading at 29x Earnings — the Lowest Valuation in a Decade. Billionaires Are Buying, Should You?

It’s worth taking a moment to sit with this number. Currently trading at about 29 times earnings, Amazon’s stock is not inexpensive in absolute terms, but it is at its lowest valuation in almost ten years, with a historical median closer to 81 times. That multiple is the kind of thing that makes some investors grab their phones for a company that made $716.9 billion in revenue last year and increased net income by 31% to $77.7 billion. Among them was Stanley Druckenmiller. He added about 300,000 more Amazon shares in the fourth quarter of 2025, increasing his holdings by 69%. At year’s end, Pershing Square, owned by Bill Ackman, had a $2.2 billion stake. Seth Klarman was also present. Even though it’s still unclear exactly what April 29 brings, three investors of that caliber adding at the same time usually means something.

That date is significant because AWS, or Amazon Web Services, the cloud computing division that generated $128.7 billion in revenue in 2025 while continuously maintaining operating margins above 30%, will be the main attraction when Amazon releases its first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 29. The investment thesis has essentially been boiled down to one question by analysts keeping a close eye on the stock: does AWS grow at or above 20% annually? Current models of valuation hold up if it does. If it doesn’t, many price targets are uncomfortably quickly revisited. Server farms operating throughout Northern Virginia, data centers the size of city blocks dispersed throughout Ohio and Oregon, and enterprise contracts involving government agencies, financial institutions, and healthcare systems are just a few examples of the massive business that supports that question. It doesn’t feel brittle. However, there is a unique tension associated with each earnings season.

Amazon has been managing a logistics situation that turned out to be more complicated than anyone had publicly predicted, while the AWS story unfolds in the background. Earlier this year, there were rumors that the company was thinking of reducing its delivery volume with the USPS by two-thirds. This figure worried USPS officials because Amazon brings in about $6 billion a year, or roughly 7.5% of the agency’s $80 billion budget. The USPS issued a warning that its operating funds could run out as early as October, citing cumulative net losses of $118 billion since 2007. Some were speculating that Amazon’s impending cut might be the company’s last blow. Instead, a negotiated solution was reached whereby USPS keeps roughly 80% of Amazon’s delivery volume, which includes over a billion packages every year. Not the best for USPS. But it’s also not a death sentence.

The transaction provides insight into the real workings of Amazon’s logistics empire. The company plans to invest more than $4 billion by the end of 2026 to expand rural infrastructure. It has spent years and billions building its own delivery network, which includes the ubiquitous blue-and-white vans that pull up to driveways across suburban America. However, the USPS does not impose surcharges for remoteness on any residential address in the nation, including those in Alaska and Hawaii. Amazon’s in-house vans work well in crowded suburban and urban areas.

Currently, they cannot take the place of a postal carrier who drives a route through the highlands of Wyoming, no matter how many packages are waiting there. Amazon remained at the table because of this reality. UPS is retreating to concentrate on higher-margin customers, while FedEx has already severed many ties with Amazon. Amazon is essential to the USPS. However, Amazon still requires the USPS.

Oil further complicates expenses. Logistics firms have been forced to pass energy costs downstream due to the US-Iran conflict, which caused disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and briefly raised the price of crude above $114 per barrel. Following similar actions by UPS, FedEx, and the USPS, Amazon will impose a 3.5% fuel surcharge on third-party sellers utilizing its fulfillment and return services as of April 17. For the first time since 2022, the average price of gasoline in the US exceeded $4 per gallon. The situation can be summed up simply by a Menlo College professor: logistics companies have to either absorb the costs themselves or push them to others. The latter option was selected by Amazon, in line with how all of the major carriers have responded to the energy shock. The April 29 call may start to address whether this reduces third-party seller margins and slows GMV growth.

Amazon is literally building a satellite internet constellation called Amazon Leo somewhere above all of this. 241 satellites were in orbit as of early April. On April 4, the largest single launch to date took place, using Atlas V to deliver 29 satellites from Cape Canaveral. Chris Weber, the vice president of Amazon Leo, stated at the SAT Show 2026 in Washington that commercial service is now only a few months away and that two more launches are scheduled for the coming weeks. Approximately 7,700 satellites are targeted by the entire constellation. There are issues: Apple’s 20% ownership in the satellite company adds a layer of negotiating friction that could impede any deal, but Amazon has reportedly started talks to buy Globalstar. Within two or three years, Amazon Leo might grow into a significant company.

It might also be overshadowed by Starlink’s early advantage. Watching this specific race develop is one of the truly fascinating subplots in technology at the moment, and both things can be true at the same time. At its current multiple, the stock shows very little of that optionality. Druckenmiller may be wagering more on that than anything else.