SPCX Stock Valuation Draws Scrutiny After SpaceX Surges Past IPO Price

SPCX stock valuation is drawing serious scrutiny after shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. climbed as high as $226 in the days following the 15 June 2026 initial public offering, which priced at $135.00 per share.

At the current price of $185, the implied market capitalisation is $2.4 trillion. With FY2025 revenue of $18.67 billion, the trailing price-to-sales ratio stands at 128. For comparison, Nvidia trades at 20 times sales, Alphabet at 10, Tesla at 15, and Amazon at 3.5. One leading research firm has placed SpaceX’s intrinsic value closer to $780 billion, implying a share price of $63, and considers the stock ‘significantly overvalued’ at current levels. At the $135 IPO price, SpaceX’s market capitalisation already placed it above Tesla, which was valued at approximately $1.6 trillion at the time of pricing.

What the IPO structure tells us

The 424B4 final prospectus and the subsequent closing 8-K confirm that 638,888,888 Class A shares were sold, comprising a base offering of 555,555,555 shares plus the full exercise of the underwriters’ over-allotment option of 83,333,333 shares. Underwriting discounts totalled $500 million on the base offering ($0.90 per share), leaving proceeds before expenses to SpaceX of $134.10 per share, or approximately $74.5 billion on the base tranche.

Those 639 million publicly traded shares represent roughly 4.3% of total shares outstanding, with more than 13 billion shares in existence at the time of the IPO. Elon Musk retains approximately 82.3% of voting power following the full exercise of the over-allotment option, of which approximately 81.1% is attributable to his Class B common stock, which carries 10 votes per share against one vote for Class A. (The 424B4, filed before the over-allotment exercise was confirmed, had cited 82.4%.)

The lockup calendar and the SPCX stock valuation reset

The concentrated free float shapes much of the SPCX stock valuation debate. According to Business Insider, the public free float at IPO was roughly 4.3%. SpaceX implemented a staggered lockup structure rather than a standard 180-day arrangement: per Invezz reporting via TradingView, 20% of locked shares become available at the first window, rising to up to 30% if the stock is trading above $175 at that point.

The main lockup window is reported to expire on 8 December 2026, with Musk’s own 6.4 billion shares locked until 12 June 2027, according to StockAlarm. SpaceX has not published official lockup expiry dates via its investor relations channels, so those figures should be treated as secondary-source estimates. The Q2 2026 earnings release, expected in July or August, will be the first substantive test of Starlink subscriber growth and cost discipline.

The Cursor acquisition adds to the AI valuation layer

One day after the IPO closed, SpaceX filed an 8-K disclosing an agreement to acquire Anysphere, Inc. (Cursor) via its wholly owned subsidiary X67 Inc. The transaction is valued at an implied equity value for Cursor of $60.0 billion, with consideration payable in SpaceX Class A common stock; the deal is expected to close in Q3 2026.

The acquisition builds on a corporate structure that has already absorbed significant assets. SpaceX completed the acquisition of xAI Holdings Corp. on 2 February 2026, with consolidated financials recast retrospectively to include xAI’s historical results, and a five-for-one stock split of all share classes took effect on 4 May 2026. FY2025 revenue of $18.67 billion broke down as $11.4 billion from Starlink connectivity, $4.1 billion from the Space segment, and $3.2 billion from AI. As of 19 June 2026, SpaceX held approximately $100.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents; on 22 June 2026, it launched an offering of senior unsecured notes to repay its bridge loan facility.

The SPCX stock valuation at $185 already prices in extraordinary execution across every segment, with a price-to-sales multiple that dwarfs even the most growth-oriented peers in the market. SPCX closed its first day of trading at $161 on 12 June 2026, meaning the current price represents a further 15% premium above that opening mark. The December lockup window, the Q2 earnings print, and the competing capital demands from forthcoming high-profile IPOs all converge in the second half of 2026. Any one of those events could be the first real pressure test for a multiple that has had very little reason to pause since the opening print.