Rolls-Royce and SpaceX Valuation Gap Laid Bare as Lockup Clock Ticks

The Rolls-Royce and SpaceX valuation gap is stark enough to produce a thought experiment worth running: apply SpaceX’s current price-to-sales multiple to Rolls-Royce Holdings (LSE: RR) and the implied share price comes out at £141.3, against an actual price of £14.13 on 8 July. That is not a forecast. It is an illustration of how differently the market prices two aerospace businesses with very different growth stories.

The Rolls-Royce and SpaceX Valuation Gap in Numbers

SpaceX priced its shares at $135 each and debuted on 12 June 2026 in what has been described as the largest initial public offering in US history, raising $75 billion at a $2.1 trillion valuation. (One aggregator source references an 11 June debut; SmartAsset, cited here, gives 12 June. Both agree on the $135 IPO price.) With analysts estimating 2026 revenues of around $38 billion (£28.4 billion) against a market cap of $1.97 trillion (£1.48 trillion), SpaceX trades on a forward price-to-sales ratio of roughly 52 times.

Apply that multiple to Rolls-Royce’s FY2026 consensus revenue of £22.7 billion and the arithmetic is straightforward.

The gap is large enough to look like a mispricing. It is not. SpaceX operates in space launch, satellite broadband, and AI infrastructure through its xAI integration: markets Rolls-Royce cannot access. Rolls-Royce is an engine manufacturer and defence systems provider, however capable, competing in mature and highly regulated end-markets. The ten-times multiple differential reflects that fundamental difference in addressable market, not an oversight by institutional investors.

Rolls-Royce’s Own Recovery Has Been Real

That does not diminish what Rolls-Royce has achieved under chief executive Tufan Erginbilgiç. In its 2024 half-year results, the company reported underlying operating profit of £1.1 billion, a free cash flow of £1.2 billion, and an underlying operating margin of 14.0%. Net debt came down to £0.8 billion. The board reinstated shareholder distributions, setting a payout ratio of 30% of underlying profit after tax, with an ongoing target of 30 to 40%. Full-year 2024 guidance was lifted to underlying operating profit of £2.1 billion to £2.3 billion and free cash flow of £2.1 billion to £2.2 billion.

Revenue growth has continued into 2025. According to Simply Wall St, Rolls-Royce posted FY2025 revenue of £21.2 billion, up 12% from FY2024, with an average annual revenue growth rate of 14.7% over recent years. These are aggregator figures in the absence of a primary filing covering the same metric, but the direction is consistent with the half-year results and the company’s own guidance upgrades.

Erginbilgiç, speaking at the full-year 2025 results, described the company as ‘delivering on our proposition to transform Rolls-Royce into a high-performing, competitive, resilient, and growing business.’ The half-year results due on 30 July will be the next test of whether that trajectory is intact.

The SpaceX Lockup Is the More Pressing Risk

Investors weighing exposure to SpaceX face a more immediate structural question. According to Investing.com, roughly $123 billion worth of shares are set to unlock in early August, approximately 68 times the $1.8 billion typical for a large-cap lockup expiry. SpaceX had already slipped below its $135 IPO price, trading at $134.91 on 16 July.

The structure of that lockup matters. As outlined in Morningstar’s analysis of the IPO prospectus, investors can sell up to 20% of their shares on the second full trading day after SpaceX releases its first post-Q2 earnings report. A further 10% becomes eligible if the stock trades 30% above its $135 IPO price, meaning above $175.50, for at least five of the ten consecutive trading days leading up to that earnings release.

In share count terms, Saganote reports that 911.5 million shares become eligible for sale on that second trading day, with a further 455.8 million unlocking if the $175.50 threshold is met. SpaceX kept its float below 5% at IPO, which means the unlocking cohort dwarfs the existing freely tradeable supply. A stock priced for flawless execution absorbs supply shocks poorly.

Where the Rolls-Royce and SpaceX Valuation Gap Leaves Investors

The comparison between the two companies is illuminating precisely because it is not an apples-to-apples one. SpaceX’s 52x forward P/S ratio prices in years of uninterrupted growth in markets that are still forming. Rolls-Royce’s 5.2x reflects a business with real earnings, reinstated dividends, and improving margins, but operating in more predictable and more competitive territory.

Risks for Rolls-Royce are real: reduced defence spending, supply chain pressures, and the pace of civil aerospace recovery all apply. The 30 July half-year results will clarify how the first half of 2025 played out relative to the guidance corridor. That is the next concrete data point for investors assessing whether the recovery multiple still has room.