FTSE 100 vs S&P 500: Glencore Results Show How Close the Race Has Become

The FTSE 100 vs S&P 500 contest has rarely been this tight, and a blowout set of half-year numbers from Glencore (LSE: GLEN) underlines why London’s blue-chip index deserves more serious attention than it has received for most of the past decade.

Over the last 12 months the FTSE 100 climbed 17.7% to 10,824. Add dividends, and the total return comes to around 21%. The S&P 500 delivered a price return of 20.2% over the same period, with a total return of 21.2%. The gap, in other words, is essentially noise.

That will surprise investors conditioned to watching Wall Street pull away. The structural advantage has always been obvious: a concentration of giant technology companies that have compounded at rates the London market could not match. The FTSE 100 compensates partly through income: a dividend yield of around 3.3%, against 1.1% for the S&P 500. But income alone has not historically closed a returns gap of that magnitude. What is closing it now is a rotation into the sectors London actually has: banks, insurers, miners, pharmaceuticals.

The risks on both sides of the FTSE 100 vs S&P 500 debate

The AI valuation premium embedded in the S&P 500 is the obvious threat to the US index. If investors conclude they have overpaid for the technology giants, the correction would be sharp. The FTSE 100’s lower exposure to that trade provides some insulation, though not immunity: as one framing of the risk puts it, ‘investors fleeing risk tend to sell everything first and ask questions later.’

Higher interest rates are a parallel threat. Energy-price pressure, if sustained, could squeeze US growth stocks by compressing the present value of long-dated earnings. At the same time, income stocks in London are not unaffected: when cash and bonds offer competitive yields, equity income becomes a less compelling proposition. The rotation that has helped the FTSE 100 can reverse.

The setup, then, is binary. A disorderly US derating would test both indices, but likely hurt the S&P 500 more severely. A soft landing that keeps rate expectations contained favours equities broadly, and the FTSE 100’s valuation discount to Wall Street leaves more room for rerating.

Glencore’s numbers show what a genuine FTSE 100 earnings recovery looks like

Glencore’s H1 2026 results, published 5 August 2026, are the clearest illustration of what is driving London’s improved performance. According to the Glencore 2026 Half-Year Results Presentation, group adjusted EBITDA rose 86% to $10.1bn. Revenue was up 49% year-on-year, as reported by Yahoo Finance. Net income attributable to equity holders came in at $4.4bn, swinging from a loss in the prior-year period.

Beneath the headline, the business delivered on two fronts simultaneously. Industrial Adjusted EBITDA of $6.5bn was up 72% year-on-year, reflecting copper’s role in the energy transition and Glencore’s position as a major producer. Marketing Adjusted EBIT of $3.3bn was up 142% year-on-year. CEO Gary Nagle attributed that exceptional marketing performance to significant dislocation and trading opportunities across crude oil, refined products, gas and freight markets, according to Kalkine Media. Funds from Operations reached $8.1bn, up 158% year-on-year.

The balance sheet has improved alongside earnings. Net debt fell 9% year-on-year to $10.2bn at 30 June 2026. That gives the company the flexibility to return capital at scale: Glencore has announced approximately $3.5bn in shareholder returns for 2026, comprising an ordinary dividend, a $1bn special dividend, and a $500m share buyback targeted for completion by February, as Business Day reported. Since 2021, total returns to shareholders stand at $28.7bn ($14.1bn in base cash distributions, $5.3bn in special cash distributions, and $9.3bn in buybacks), representing approximately 33% of Glencore’s current market capitalisation.

Glencore has also repurchased approximately 1.7 billion shares as of 30 June 2026, equivalent to approximately 14.4% of shares eligible for distributions. The company has separately announced a planned secondary listing on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), a move that could broaden its institutional investor base; the dividend history on ADVFN reflects the step-up in distributions across recent periods.

The shares have risen 102% over the past year, which partly reflects the recovery from a weak 2025, when adjusted EBITDA fell 6% to $13.5bn on softer energy and coal prices. Commodity cycles turn, and a demand shock from a global recession remains the bear case. But the earnings and cash-flow momentum through H1 2026 is of a different order from what that 2025 result implied.

The next test for the FTSE 100 vs S&P 500 comparison is straightforward: whether a further rotation away from US technology names gathers pace into year-end, or whether a resilient US earnings season puts the premium back on growth. For Glencore specifically, copper demand trajectory and H2 marketing conditions are the variables that matter most.