Bitcoin Price Rally Stumbles at $75K as Traders Dismiss Relief Bounce

Bitcoin hit $74,600 Monday morning. The bitcoin price rally marked new six-week highs as US stocks ripped 1.5% higher on Iran war deescalation signals.

Not everyone’s convinced.

“Longer relief bounce than expected, but in the grand scheme of things—it changes nothing,” trader Jelle wrote Monday. That’s the prevailing sentiment among BTC veterans. Price reclaimed key trend lines after an impressive weekly close. Traders still see lower prices ahead. “Patiently waiting for lower prices,” Jelle added.

The catalyst: geopolitical pressure easing. The US will allow Iranian oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump pledged to coordinate efforts to reopen the critical oil shipping route fully. WTI crude fell below $100 per barrel. Gold retested $5,000 support, meeting its 50-day simple moving average for the first time since early February.

Risk assets moved together. Stocks up. Oil down. Gold under pressure. Bitcoin and Ethereum pushed through resistance—BTC above $74,000, ETH above $2,270. Trading firm QCP Capital noted the divergence: “If this pattern persists, it would be a late-quarter plot twist, given crypto’s underdog status and its familiar habit of correlating with traditional assets mostly on the way down.”

This bitcoin price rally carries a different narrative than past moves. QCP mentioned Bitcoin competing with gold during uncertainty periods. “Recent price action suggests the narrative of BTC as a ‘digital safe haven’ or ‘geopolitical hedge’ may be resurfacing, with markets stress-testing that thesis in real time,” the firm wrote in its latest Market Color analysis.

But the thesis faces skepticism from traders who’ve seen this before.

**Why Traders Doubt the Bitcoin Price Rally**

Historical precedent weighs heavy. Bull and bear markets have historically lasted similar amounts of time in Bitcoin. Jelle posted a chart showing the current bear market hasn’t reached typical duration yet. “If that pattern repeats, we’re not even halfway through this bear market,” he noted. The implication: the bitcoin price rally represents a relief bounce within a larger downtrend, not a reversal.

I’ve traded through similar setups. 2018 had multiple 20-30% relief rallies before the final capitulation to $3,200. Every bounce looked like “the bottom” until it wasn’t. This one follows the same script—sharp move off oversold conditions, reclaims technical levels, bulls start getting excited. Then reality reasserts itself.

Trader Daan Crypto Trades focused on technical levels that could cap the move. CME Group’s Bitcoin futures created a “gap” over the weekend near $71,500. “Good to keep an eye on in case price starts trading into that area,” he told followers. “This level also roughly lines up with the range high.” Gaps often act as magnets for price action. If BTC retraces there, it could trigger local reversal.

The data tells a different story than the price chart. Weekly close reclaimed trend lines—that’s constructive. But the bitcoin price rally came on relatively modest volume compared to the January selloff. Distribution happened on heavy volume. Accumulation isn’t matching that intensity. That’s a red flag.

Funding rates provide another clue. They’ve turned slightly positive but remain subdued. No euphoria. No overleveraged longs getting squeezed. That’s actually healthy for continuation. But it also means the move lacks conviction. Smart money isn’t piling in aggressively.

The macro backdrop shifted. Iran tensions easing removed a risk premium. Oil fell below $100. Gold retreated from $5,000. Those moves make sense. But Bitcoin’s correlation to risk assets means it’s rising because equities are rising, not because of crypto-specific catalysts. When stocks reverse—and they will if oil spikes again—BTC follows down. That’s been the pattern since 2022.

QCP’s “digital safe haven” thesis sounds compelling. In theory, Bitcoin should benefit from geopolitical chaos as investors seek alternatives to traditional assets. In practice, BTC has traded like a leveraged tech stock. 90-day correlation to Nasdaq sits above 0.80. That’s not a hedge. That’s a risk-on asset.

The range matters more than the bounce. Bitcoin traded between roughly $76,000 resistance and $71,500 support for weeks before breaking down in late February. The current push tests the upper boundary of that former range. Breaking back inside doesn’t mean breaking out. It means chopping inside familiar territory until something forces resolution.

**Levels to Watch**

Hold $74,000 and bulls can argue for continuation toward $76,000-$78,000. That would retest the range high and challenge the 200-day moving average. Lose $74,000 and the CME gap at $71,500 becomes the target. Break that and we’re looking at $68,000-$70,000 retests.

The weekly close mattered. Reclaiming trend line support gave bulls a technical win. But one weekly close doesn’t reverse a multi-month downtrend. Bears need to see follow-through. Multiple weeks holding above these levels. Expansion in volume. Funding rates pushing higher as conviction builds.

None of that’s happened yet.

Jelle’s waiting for “a higher low” if proven wrong. That’s the disciplined approach. Don’t fight the tape if price proves strength. But don’t assume strength until price proves it. The bitcoin price rally could extend further on continued geopolitical relief. Iran staying calm. Oil staying below $100. Stocks grinding higher.

Or it could collapse if tensions flare again. One missile. One tanker seized. One headline changes everything. That’s the problem with rallies built on geopolitical relief—the relief can evaporate instantly.

For now, watch $74,000. Bulls defend that or lose the narrative. Bears reclaim it and reassert control. Simple as that.

All eyes on oil and the Strait of Hormuz.