SpaceX Stock Before the IPO — Here’s What Investors Are Quietly Buying Instead

Right now, SpaceX is surrounded by an odd energy that you only notice if you have been observing markets long enough to notice it. Traders who would typically only consider earnings calls are suddenly proficient in phrases like “direct-to-cell spectrum” and “medium-lift payload.” The topic keeps coming up when you enter a brokerage chat room or browse retail investor forums. Before the prospectus has even been thoroughly reviewed, everyone seems to have an opinion about SpaceX, which may go public as early as June.

The noise is unfamiliar for a business that has operated in the comparatively quiet world of private capital for more than 20 years. For years, Elon Musk has alluded to, denied, postponed, and again hinted at an IPO. However, the SEC filing is genuine this time, and the figures being presented are nearly ludicrous. With a valuation as high as $2 trillion, SpaceX would be among the few businesses on the planet. The appetite is evident, but once underwriters begin pricing the item, the figure might compress.

It’s intriguing how the enthusiasm has overflowed. Earlier this month, Rocket Lab, the closest public proxy to anything Musk does in orbit, surged about 30% in a single session and added another 14% the following day, reaching an all-time high. With 31 launches signed in a single quarter, a $2.2 billion backlog, and a new Defense Department block buy valued at $190 million, its CEO Peter Beck has been discreetly stacking contracts. If you can’t directly own SpaceX, investors seem to think you might as well own the only Western rival attempting to develop a medium-lift rocket. It remains to be seen if that reasoning holds true once the IPO prices.

Then there are the indirect plays, which have developed into a minor obsession of their own. Alphabet’s 2015 investment still gives it a sizable stake. Years ago, Bank of America made a purchase. If the $2 trillion figure holds true, EchoStar could acquire approximately 2.8% of SpaceX shares through a pending spectrum deal, a position that would dwarf its current market capitalization. Although regulatory approval is still pending and things rarely go as planned, some investors believe EchoStar could be the cleanest backdoor available.

No one can stop arguing about the Tesla angle. For years, Musk’s other publicly traded business has amassed the allegiance of common investors who view him as a hybrid of a CEO and a folk hero. When those same investors are given the opportunity to own a portion of the rocket company—something that many of them have genuinely been waiting for—what happens? Some analysts maintain that nothing has changed. Some believe that a portion of Tesla’s revenue moves covertly. Given that Tesla has increased by more than 20% in the last month, it’s difficult not to question whether the rally is the result of sincere enthusiasm or preparation for something completely different.

The reality of SpaceX on the ground hasn’t changed significantly outside of the financial press. Falcon 9 continues to launch with an unstoppable cadence. Starlink continues to grow its subscriber base. Musk has consistently maintained that blowing up and rebuilding Starship is a necessary part of the plan. There is still no assurance that any of this will result in the kind of disciplined, quarterly performance that the public markets require. Similar skepticism was faced by Tesla years ago, and things worked out well until they didn’t.

Whether SpaceX stock will live up to the hype when it actually trades or if it will act like every other generational IPO and trade sideways for a year before anyone determines its true value is still up in the air. For the time being, waiting itself has turned into a commercial narrative.