Greggs Shares Broker Outlook Splits as H1 Profits Rebound 19.7%

The Greggs shares broker outlook has rarely been more divided: fifteen analysts, a neutral consensus, and a share price sitting near 1,600p after sliding from around 2,800p since 2025. What makes the picture more complex is that the company’s own numbers, at least for the first half of 2026, look considerably better than the share price implies.

H1 2026 Results Give the Bulls Some Ammunition

For the 26 weeks ended 27 June 2026, Greggs reported total sales of £1,101.5m, up 7.2% year-on-year, with profit before tax rising 19.7% to £76.0m. Like-for-like sales grew 2.1%, operating cash flow increased 18.3% to £111m, and the company ended the period with £16m net cash. Diluted earnings per share of £0.55 came in 9.8% ahead of the £0.501 consensus forecast.

The company opened 34 net new shops in the half and is targeting 100 to 110 net new openings for the full year. Market share of visits grew to 8.7% despite a 1.9% decline in overall market visits, which suggests Greggs is taking share from competitors even as the category softens.

These are not the numbers of a business in structural freefall. The share price decline, however, tells a different story, and understanding that gap is where the broker debate gets interesting.

Where the Greggs Shares Broker Outlook Stands

Across fifteen analysts, the split runs to seven Buy ratings, five Hold and four Sell. The average 12-month price target sits at 1,700p, only around 6% above current levels. That is a cautious collective view, but within it there are meaningfully different assessments of the long-term case.

JP Morgan, Barclays and UBS have all reiterated positive views recently, with 12-month targets ranging from roughly 1,910p to 2,200p. JP Morgan described Greggs as a ‘structural winner’, pointing to unit economics and high sales per square foot, and argued the share price decline is excessive relative to the modest slippage in earnings forecasts. RBC Capital carries an Outperform rating and envisions roughly 11% organic growth annually, backed by the seven-year expansion plan and the prospect of increased cash returns as cost pressures ease.

On the other side, Jefferies recently cut its rating from Buy to Hold and lowered its target from 2,500p to 1,610p. The concern is GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. Chief executive Roisin Currie has said there is ‘no doubt’ that appetite-suppressing medication is affecting the business, with customers seeking smaller portions and healthier options. Greggs is adapting its menu in response, but how far the trend runs and how much of the addressable customer base it affects remains genuinely uncertain.

Management has described the 2026 consumer outlook as ‘cautious but hopeful’, which is not the language of a company expecting a sharp recovery.

The Full-Year Picture Is More Measured

The strong H1 comes with a second-half caveat. Greggs’ Q4 2025 trading update stated that the company expected to deliver profits at a similar underlying level to 2025, with any improvement contingent on a recovery in the consumer backdrop. Management has since maintained full-year profit guidance for 2026, flagging second-half headwinds from Derby operating costs and cost inflation, even as it lowered the cost inflation assumption to 2% from an earlier 3% estimate and ruled out additional autumn pricing.

For context, full-year 2025 results showed sales up 6.8% to £2.15bn but profit down 9.4%, which helps explain why the market has been reluctant to re-rate the stock on the back of a single strong half-year. The pattern of decent top-line growth with margin compression is not new.

The H1 2026 earnings beat does shift the probability distribution somewhat: if cost inflation continues to moderate and new store economics hold up, the back half could surprise to the upside. But the bears’ structural argument, centred on GLP-1 headwinds and the capital-intensive expansion programme, does not dissolve simply because one half-year came in ahead of forecasts.

A 4.3% dividend yield provides some cushion for investors prepared to wait. The market share data from Quartr corroborates the view from MarketBeat’s earnings summary that Greggs is holding its own competitively, even in a softer consumer environment. Whether that is enough to justify committing fresh capital at these levels depends on one’s view of how quickly margin normalisation materialises and how deeply the GLP-1 trend bites into the core customer base. The next hard data point comes with the full-year 2026 results, where the H2 trading performance will either validate or undercut the bulls’ recovery thesis.