SpaceX Share Price Recovers from 52% Plunge, but the Lockup Flood Runs to Mid-2027

The SpaceX share price has recovered 35% in five sessions after the company passed its first insider lockup test, clawing back above the $135 IPO price — but SPCX shareholders face a nine-stage unlock calendar that runs all the way to mid-2027, and a freshly completed $60 billion acquisition that adds further dilution to the picture.

From $225.64 to below the IPO price and back again

Space Exploration Technologies Corporation priced its IPO at $135 per share in June 2026, raising a base offering of $75 billion through 555,555,555 shares of Class A common stock, in what became the world’s largest ever flotation. The stock opened and then surged to an intra-day peak of $225.64 on 16 June, before selling pressure drove it back below the issue price — a peak-to-trough collapse of 52%.

The first test came on 4 August, when SpaceX reported its debut public earnings: Q2 2026 revenue of $7.8 billion. The shares dropped more than 10% the following day. At the same time, Reuters reported that the first lockup tranche — 911.5 million shares, more than the entire IPO float — became eligible for sale on the second full trading day after that earnings release. Short interest, per S3 Partners data cited by Bloomberg, stood at 35% of available float.

The feared deluge did not materialise, at least not immediately. The Financial Post reported that SPCX surged 35% across five sessions, adding roughly $500 billion in market capitalisation and pushing back above the $135 IPO price. For investors who bought the bottom, that is a significant return in a short window. The question is whether the structural supply overhang has been absorbed or merely deferred.

The SpaceX share price still faces a long unlock queue

The unlock structure, per the prospectus as reported by CNBC, runs across nine stages. The next expiry on 20 August releases as many as 319 million shares, representing approximately 7% of total shares subject to selling restrictions. Roughly 700 million shares could follow in September, and a similar number in October. By mid-2027, Reuters calculates that 12.9 billion shares in aggregate will have been freed for trading.

Elon Musk’s position sits outside this general schedule. He owns approximately 42% of SpaceX and is subject to a separate one-year lockup, putting his roughly 6.4 billion shares off the market until June 2027. The structural point is plain: the supply pressure from the general lockup runs for most of the next year before Musk’s block even comes into scope.

What the financials actually show

Morningstar’s analysis of SpaceX’s S-1 filing provides the clearest picture of the underlying business. The company brought in $18 billion in revenue in 2025, up 33% from 2024, with EBITDA of $6.58 billion. The net loss for 2025 was $4.9 billion, driven substantially by investment in the xAI operation. Revenue growth continued into 2026, with Q1 up 15% year-on-year.

Starlink, the satellite internet division, is the engine. Its adjusted EBITDA grew 86% between 2024 and 2025, and total subscribers doubled. The division generates more than $11 billion a year from over 10 million subscribers, with a competitive moat that no realistic near-term rival can replicate. The bear case is not that Starlink fails; it is that Starlink’s cash generation continues to be absorbed by other parts of the business.

One development that received less attention in the initial IPO commentary: on 14 August 2026, SpaceX completed its acquisition of Anysphere, Inc. (Cursor), the AI coding tool, by issuing 389,289,254 Class A shares plus an additional 1,752,426 shares for vested restricted stock units. The implied equity value of Cursor was $60.0 billion. The S-1 registration statement makes clear that Class A shareholders hold one vote per share against ten votes for Class B holders, meaning public investors have limited influence over decisions of this kind regardless of their views on the price paid.

The setup for the next quarter

For investors weighing an entry, the thesis is straightforward and the risks are equally visible. The operating business is growing fast and Starlink’s economics are genuinely strong. The IPO hype premium has been wrung out twice over. But the unlock schedule creates a predictable supply event roughly every three to four weeks through the rest of 2026, and the Cursor acquisition has added substantial dilution without any publicly audited integration timeline.

The next binary test for the SpaceX share price arrives on 20 August, when 319 million more shares become eligible for sale. How the market absorbs that tranche will signal whether institutional demand is durable or whether the first lockup rally was simply short-covering against an overcrowded short.