The Space Economy Soars: The Multi-Billion Dollar Rush to Mine Asteroids and Build Lunar Bases

A mining executive made a statement that stuck with me last spring at a panel I only partially attended from the back of a Houston hotel ballroom. He was discussing the moon in a straightforward manner, akin to a map problem, much like his grandfather might have discussed the Pilbara. No language with starry eyes. Just logistics, rock, and water. To be honest, it was the most persuasive statement made about space this year.

The figures that are currently circulating in the industry are nearly absurd. The global space economy reached approximately $613 billion in 2024, up nearly 8% year over year, with the commercial sector accounting for nearly 80% of that. McKinsey’s analysts predict that the sector will reach approximately $1.8 trillion by 2035. Investors continue to circle that final number in red. The days of NASA, the Pentagon, and a few contractors being involved in space exploration are quietly coming to an end. It’s being replaced by something messier and more intriguing.

The story that appears on magazine covers is the one about asteroid mining. It is simple to understand why. Trillions of dollars in rare earths, nickel, platinum, and water—all of which are located somewhere between Mars and Jupiter—or, more practically, in the population of near-Earth objects that we continue to find. Former Deep Space Industries employee Grant Bonin once made the amusing comment that humanity is “threatened by giant piles of money.” It’s also a little deceptive. Because the smart money, the patient money, the dull money, is increasingly focusing on the moon while asteroids dominate the news.

There’s a rationale. Three days remain until the moon appears. Months are asteroids. You can repeat when something breaks on the lunar surface. A probe cannot be iterated halfway to Bennu. The concept of a permanent lunar presence has been solidified by NASA’s Artemis program, and several commercial landers made it to the surface in 2025, some with grace and others with less. There is no longer any curiosity about the water ice that sits in those permanently shadowed craters at the south pole. It’s inventory. When you separate it into hydrogen and oxygen, you have rocket fuel, which means refueling depots, which lowers the cost of everything downstream, including deep-space cargo, Mars missions, and the entire architecture.

Observing the industry from the outside, I’m struck by how much of this looks like a slow handoff between two cultures that have ignored one another for decades. People in space are familiar with how to get there. When you get there, the miners know what to do. In Western Australia, Rio Tinto currently operates 200-ton autonomous trucks from control rooms located 1,500 kilometers away. That pitch deck isn’t lunar. Tuesday is that day. It’s difficult to avoid the suspicion that businesses that the majority of space enthusiasts are unaware of will make the first real money on the moon.

Strange locations are being used to construct the legal scaffolding. In 2015, the US passed a law pertaining to space resources. In order to entice businesses, Luxembourg followed in 2017 with a fund of about €200 million. The United Arab Emirates has its own system. China views the entire issue as part of its national strategy. Everyone is aware that the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which was drafted when the moon was still a Cold War prop, doesn’t really address any of this.

There is a voice in the room that is worth keeping skeptical. Robert Sparrow, an Australian ethicist, once remarked that the desire to mine asteroids feels haughty because of our neglect of Earth. He’s not incorrect. Overall, this planet’s history of resource rushes is not a happy one. It’s genuinely unclear if the next one, which takes place three days from now on a body with no atmosphere and no witnesses, will unfold differently. It’s obvious that it will happen. The kettles are boiling right now.