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Forthcoming ‘buy-to-let tax’ prompts property rush

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Analysts await with interest the impact on the UK property market of the forthcoming ‘buy-to-let tax’, due to be introduced as of 1st April, with the government hoping it will ultimately ease what some believe are unsustainable price increases.

However, in the run up to the introduction of the new stamp duty rules, estate agents are in fact reporting increased demand from property investors aiming to buy homes before the surcharge becomes effective.

As of 1st April, anyone in the UK purchasing a property with a value of more than £40,000 to use as a second residence or to let out is set to pay stamp duty three percentage points higher than the standard rate. This measure is being introduced in order to help first time buyers or those simply buying properties to live in themselves, as opposed to serial investors who might be seen to exploit the rental market to the detriment of others.

But unsurprisingly there are signs of a late surge from investors to snap up whatever property they can before it effectively becomes more expensive to them.

The Guardian newspaper in London writes that ‘The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors recently reported that the housing market had seen an “unusually buoyant” December, and suggested that this was in part a result of investors trying to beat the tax change. Those involved in the market suggest that this has continued into 2016.’

For investors who are spending £1,000,000 on a property – not an unusually high sum in many parts of London – the new tax would essentially cost them £30,000 extra if they buy after 1st April.

But for those in London who are struggling to get their foot on the ladder with a first property purchase the new surcharge will not apply and will therefore potentially put them ahead of the queue – in front of investors – for certain properties.

The change to property taxation was announced by the Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne last autumn and caused mixed reactions amongst observers, some believing it could be counter productive, some believing it does not go far enough to help first time buyers and others believing it could be highly successful.

Estate agents in London in particular have reported a flurry of activity to ‘beat the tax’. Central London estate agent Cory Askew, of Chestertons, told the Guardian, “December and January are not normally busy months for us – it was fairly striking the change in activity. If we have the surge in demand now we can only assume it will quieten down in April, or there will be strong negotiation by buyers.”

Of course some first time buyers and buy-to-let investors will be holding fire for now, believing that increased activity before 1st April could temporarily distort the market and push prices higher up for a few weeks. The story looks set to roll on.

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Growth of Chinese economy slowest in 25 years

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China’s economy grew at the slowest rate since the end of the 1980s in 2015 with a 6.9% growth rate for last year, a drop of 0.4% from the previous 12 months.

The strength of the Chinese economy is seen as an indicator of the health of the global economy and the recent turmoil on China’s stock exchange has caused havoc in international markets. The latest overall figures continue to increase concern for investors across the globe.

Authorities in Beijing are playing down any panic about the figures and had set a growth objective of around 7% for 2015, with China’s Premier Li Keqiang saying decreased growth levels are not an issue provided sufficient new jobs are created.

Some analysts believe the growth figures are lower than being officially reported, with numbers dropping towards 6.8% growth in Q4.

The giant Asian country is in transition after huge growth sustained over a period of more than 10 years. The Chinese want to move towards a consumption and services based economy, rather than rely so heavily on exports and investment.

However, China still depends massively on its vast manufacturing sector and that will not change overnight. Indeed the news of China’s second consecutive year of slowing growth is no great surprise, with regular reports of its manufacturing industry slowing and subsequent reactions on the stock market causing chaotic scenes already this year.

For the Chinese and for those with investments in the Far Eastern behemoth economy there are genuine worries about the future. Annual growth figures are important to the global economy as a whole but the monthly data released by the Chinese is also scrutinized heavily, with some analyst believing the figures are often far from accurate.

Retail data and monthly industrial production figures for December were slightly worse than expected and that of course had a knock on effect on global markets.

Catherine Yeung from Fidelity International was quoted by the BBC providing the following analysis, “The health of the labour market, retail sales and industrial production data are all key indicators for growth. Like any economic data, it’s important to look at the themes and trends that drive them and not just the headline figure. When you look at China with this lens, we’re not seeing a meltdown, just a slowdown.”

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Drop in Oil Prices Results in Slow Global Economic Growth

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Only a modest growth of 0.5% was seen in the global GDP, despite the collapse of oil prices in recent years. In June 2014 crude was still priced at over $115 a barrel, it has since crashed to $30 at the start of 2016.

The modest growth is said to continue throughout 2016, which is good news. However, lowering prices and an oversupply of crude will put pressure on the main countries that export and produce oil around the world, some of which are England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland.

The dropping price of crude largely affects the UK and Ireland, which is the largest producer of oil and gas in Europe. In the past 10 years, the nation was able to cover its account deficit through incoming investment. However, since 2009, its shortage in investment has outpaced the insufficiency of its goods and services.

According to FXCM, “lowering prices and lagging oil production could induce a weakening of the pound.”

However, the UK remains a bullish importer of crude within Europe. Local analysts have expressed optimism that they may potentially gain benefit from the lowering oil prices by 2020, as it will spur greater investment in other sectors, such as manufacturing and transportations.

Due to the falling revenues, fossil fuel exporters and producers are forced to cut back expenditures and delay other projects. Most international oil companies are now forced to scale back their spending, make redundancies, delay some of their projects, as well as sell assets. They will be keeping activities that only offer the best returns on capital.

Analysts say, if the price stabilise in the second half of 2016, then we can expect companies to look at replacing reserves inorganically through acquisitions.

Oil price is forecasted to reach as low as $20 per barrel, but oil company OPEC said they will not slow down supply.

“We could see a short lived phase of all-out panic, which could trigger a freefall situation,” said commodity strategist Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank. “[It is still] difficult to rule out anything.”

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VW still apologising to US consumers over emissions cheating

Matthias Müller, the chief executive of German car manufacturing giant Volkswagen has announced a $900m deal to build a new SUV model in Tennessee on the eve of the Detroit auto show.

Following last year’s scandal around VW’s cheating of emissions tests – discovered initially by American researchers – Müller also apologised to the company’s American customers and admitted that the firm must rebuild confidence and trust in the U.S.

On his first official US visit to the United States since taking over as head of VW – following last September’s diesel car emissions tests scandal – Müller told the gathered American media, “We know that we have let down customers, authorities, regulators and the general public here in America.”

Speaking in Detroit – as the ‘motor city’ prepares to host one of America’s biggest auto shows – the German car manufacturer’s leading figure went on to add, “I would like to apologise once again for what went wrong at Volkswagen. Our most important task in 2016 is to win back trust. It’s not only our cars we have to fix. We have to repair our credibility, too.”

Last year it was US regulators who had discovered the emissions test falsification software in VW-built vehicles, with the German company forced to admit that

11 million diesel cars were affected worldwide, including models of the Audi, Porsche, SEAT, Skoda and VW brands.

The scandal centred around what have become known as ‘defeat devices’ which activate pollution controls when vehicles are being tested for levels of emissions of the highly toxic nitrogen oxide.

The revelations that this might have been done deliberately led to a global scandal damaging VW’s reputation and causing huge financial repercussions for the manufacturer. The mere fact that the company has thus far been able to ride the stormy post scandal waters highlights the scale of their operations and the financial and political power of the group.

However, the US government was not alone amongst other authorities worldwide to take legal action of the matter. In the US it has been stated that the defeat devices were installed on almost 600,000 VW, Audi and Porsche vehicles sold over the last six years.

Proceedings against Volkswagen allege that the company intentionally cheated pollution regulations and also hijacked investigations into the matter by covering up facts and giving out misleading information to the relevant authorities.

Briefing the press in Detroit Müller told journalists “we are not a criminal brand or group” and said that Volkswagen had not intentionally deceived American consumers or lawmakers, even if significant technical errors had been committed.

The extent of the financial fallout for the firm is not yet fully known. Volkswagen faces an expensive recall and fix process across the US, Europe and other territories, whilst government and civil law cases against the company could cost billions in fines, settlements and compensation.

The company’s executives are meeting regulators to negotiate this process whilst their engineers are working rapidly on technical solutions. In the mean time VW will plough on with plans to develop a new SUV vehicle at their factory in Chattanooga, which Müller announced will create 2,000 jobs.

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Irish housewife wins record lottery

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LONDON: Dolores McNamara, 50, of Garryowen, County Limerick in Ireland, won a 77 million pound lottery jackpot, claimed to be Europe’s largest accumulated fortune after nine rollovers.

The National Lottery in Ireland, which runs the Euromillions jackpot, said it has still not got any registration from McNamara, and hence could not confirm she is a winner. A spokesperson of the Lottery said, “Obviously it is all over the papers, but there is a formal procedure. The offices will be open on Tuesday but it would be mid to late next week at the earliest that the person would get the money, because of the magnitude of the amount.”

Euromillions tickets are sold across the U.K. Austria, Belgium, Portugal, France, Luxembourg and Spain. The winner has to match five main numbers from 1 to 50 and two lucky star number from 1 to 9. The previous record winning in Europe was 72 million pounds of the Italina Superenalotto in May this year, while the world record is 197.4 million pounds won by Andrew Whittaker in the U.S. Powerball in 2002.

McNamara, said her friends, was at the TrackBar in Garryowen, when she realised about the win. A barman said she has six kids and is a nice person. “She had given the ticket to a friend to check, telling her she couldn’t win anything – not even an argument. No one could believe it when she was told she had won.” Her husband Adrian, is a bricklayer and is recovering from a heart surgery.

She is into hiding, said her friends, to escape media interest. Her bank manager is said to have escorted her from the bar to the bank to help here put the ticket in safe. She is now 70th in the list of Ireland’s rich people, even ahead of Manchester United star Roy Keane and Hollywood actor Colin Farrell. She bought the 1.40-pound jackpot ticket on Friday, just hours before the draw.

Company man Rowe to replace Bolland as M&S boss

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UK retail giant Marks & Spencer will see current CEO Marc Bolland succeeded by Steve Rowe in April, with Bolland having announced his planned departure well ahead of time.

Like Bolland, Rowe is highly regarded in the retail sector as an experienced merchant and he will take over at the head of the firm in Q2 having previously managed M&S food. At present Rowe directs Marks & Spencer’s clothing and homeware offerings and his father was also a director of the leading British retailer until 2000.

Bolland’s departure is something of a surprise but was announced as M&S published a big drop in recent clothing sales. Bolland will be leaving the company with a £1.5 million pay-off, as he will continue to be paid until January 2017, after continuing to support Rowe in his new role until June of this year.

That arrangement will see Bolland receive nearly £900,000 in basic pay and other benefits and nearly £656,000 in shares. He already owns a stake in M&S estimated to be worth £3m. He could also earn a bonus of nearly £1.95m in cash and shares this year, plus more than £1.5m in additional shares, according to The Guardian newspaper.

M&S have recorded only a single quarterly increase in clothing sales over the past five years, with rivals taking an increasing market share. However, senior M&S figures have been supportive of Bolland and insist he was under no pressure to depart.

Indeed, food sales were strong in Q4 of 2015, as M&S food enjoyed its best ever Christmas. Food and drinks numbers at M&S have been on the rise steadily over most of the last decade.

Bolland remains upbeat about M&S’s status and his own role in the recent development of the business. The Guardian report that Bolland believes he has made a significant contribution to the ‘heavy lifting’ of modernising the company, by improving distribution, enhancing IT infrastructure, breathing life into the food offering, overseeing a strengthening in online services for customers and raising the quality of clothing on sale.

He described M&S as a “financially healthy and talented company” and went on to add, “The business is better in style, quality and margin as never before. You will see over the next quarters the benefits of that and if that is after my time I don’t mind. Can I look back and say it is all finished and great? Never. But I have done the heavy lifting that was needed. I am very pleased with what I have done over the last years and think I have built the foundations.”

Bolland holds a number of positions on the boards of large organisations and plans to devote more time to roles where he can give something back. The Dutchman is vice-president of the charity Unicef.

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International markets suffer after Chinese collapse

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China’s disastrous start to 2016 trading on Monday, which saw shares slump and triggered an early closure of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, had a knock-on effect causing a lack of confidence amongst investors around the globe.

International trading desks commenced the year with caution as the Chinese volatility and heightening Middle East tension forced stocks down.

After its worst annual results in four years at the conclusion of 2015, London’s benchmark FTSE 100 closed down 158.89 points, or 2.39%, to 6,093.43, on the first day of 2016 trading. That was the weakest start for the FTSE in 16 years, with only 2000’s opening day loss of 3.81% being a worst commencement to annual trading in the index’s three decades of history.

That meant Britain’s leading companies had dropped over £38bn in value when London trading concluded on Monday, a considerable loss compared with a total decrease of £80bn over the past year.

Monday’s Chinese mayhem also caused havoc on Wall Street with US markets reacting to the news. Day one of 2016 trading in the US saw the S&P 500 slip 1.3pc, whilst the Dow Jones industrial average and the Nasdaq Composite index lost 2.2pc and 2.7pc respectively.

Across Europe the FTSEurofirst 300 index slumped as much as 2.9pc and in Paris the CAC 40 lost 2.5pc. Germany’s DAX fell a massive 4.3% as the Spanish IBEX lost 2.4%.

Trading had been called to an early close on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets after 7% losses were triggered by figures highlighting a slowing trend in Chinese manufacturing – which has now been going on for ten months consecutively. The signals suggest that the world’s second largest economy is slowing down overall.

Last August China devalued its currency – the yuan – by 2% against the dollar, making it the biggest fall in value for over 20 years. That move was described by the Chinese as a singular adjustment aimed at stimulating the economy by making exports cheaper.

Experts believe that China wishes the yuan to be classed amongst the IMF’s reserve currencies which it uses for loans. Currently that group of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights currencies includes sterling and the dollar, which China would like to join, as a mark of financial kudos.

However, if Chinese stock markets continue to fluctuate wildly and China’s giant manufacturing influence decreases the yuan is likely to suffer further, rather than imminently joining the elite.

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Trading halted in China after CSI300 share index plummet

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As markets recommenced activity on the first Monday of 2016 it was a dramatic day for the Chinese CSI300 as a huge drop in the share index triggered an automatic ‘circuit breaker’, halting trading with immediate effect.

The 7% share plunge in the opening session of the year automatically tripped the mechanism which suspended Chinese stock markets, as poor industrial output indicators and a decrease in the value of the yuan added to concerns about the giant Asian economy. It was the first time exchanges have been forced to suspend trade in such a manner.

Around 90 minutes before the end of the trading day in China, following a morning and early afternoon of heavy losses on the CSI300, activity was brought to an early close at approximately 5.30am GMT.

A 15-minute pause in trading had been applied in the afternoon in an attempt to slow the shedding of indexes, which had already dropped 5%, but trading in Shanghai and Shenzhen was again halted after resuming for a brief period in the afternoon.

The automatic ‘circuit-breakers’ designed to alleviate market volatility were in place for the first day and were called into immediate activity.

The CSI300 therefore ended the curtailed day down 7%, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 6.9% and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 3%.

Market analysis from a private survey released early on 4th January indicated a tenth consecutive month of slowing industrial activity in China, with a sharper decline in December than previously expected. This followed market reports last Friday indicating a contraction in the activity of larger state-owned businesses for the fifth successive month, adding to worries about the wider Chinese economy.

Speaking to Reuters, a strategist from Cinda Securities commented: “The slump apparently triggered intensified selling, while the triggering of the circuit breaker seems to have heightened panic, as liquidity was suddenly gone and this is something no one has experienced before. It was a stampede.”

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Brits could lose millions due inconsistent Christmas returns policies

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Differing policies on unwanted Christmas presents from a number of big name High street stores and online retailers could lose Brits millions of pounds, with many of the UK’s biggest brands refusing to take back gifts from as early as the 4th of Janauary.

With this date falling just over a week after Christmas, Brit shoppers don’t have a lot of time on their side to be refunded for the gifts that’ll go unwanted this year. A whopping two thirds of people receive presents that they never intend to use and it was revealed that £223 million worth of gifts were returned last year, as suggested by a GoCompare.

These figures were revealed in a study that the price comparison company conducted last year, and now voucher code website 360vouchercodes.co.uk have weighed in with their own study of the 26-leading stores and websites in the UK and found out that there is a major difference in return policies during the Christmas period.

For those who like to get their Christmas shopping done early, Marks & Spencer’s have one of the longest Christmas gift return policies, counting any gift bought from September 14th as a Christmas present with the final return date for these gifts being January the 16th.

This is a stark contrast to the remainder of the other major high street and online retailers who tend to begin their Christmas gift policies at the end of October or the beginning of November.

Popular department store Selfridges on the other hand has one of the earliest end dates for returning gifts, with the company refusing to refund unwanted Christmas presents just 9 days after the 25th of December. For those who purchase their gifts from the Selfridges website then they have an additional seven days to return their gifts and receive a full refund in return.

It’s fair to say that retailers have no obligation to their customers to offer them a return policy on items bought, but with it being the season of goodwill and all (as well as being one of the most expensive months in the calendar year!); retailers decide to take up this policy. If the gift you receive is faulty however then you’re well within your rights to demand a full refund for the purchase.

Despite the likes of Selfridges demanding returns nine days after Christmas it’s fair to say that most retailers are more relaxed about the situation. Some of the biggest retailers around such as Debenhams, ASOS and New Look give their customers up until the end of January to return their unwanted gifts.

It’s recommend that you don’t go returning your gifts during the mad Boxing Day sales as the likelihood is that you’ll be turned away, with many high street stores such as River Island and New Look flat out refusing to take gifts back hours after they’ve been opened.

Despite the varied policies, the study from 360vouchercodes revealed that out of the 26 different retailers they researched, the return dates for online and in store purchases barely differ, with most online retailers still offering free postal delivery on all returns.

 

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International appeal of Premier League’s London clubs boosts UK economy

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An in depth study into the international demographics of overseas fans buying tickets for Premier League games has highlighted the huge appeal of England’s top flight across the globe.

Indeed, the study found that Americans are the most numerous Premier League fans from overseas, when it comes to purchase of resale tickets for domestic matches. Meanwhile it was also revealed that Champions League games are cheaper than Premier League games on the resale market for Chelsea and Manchester United, though the reverse is true at Arsenal and Manchester City.

All of those ‘big four’ clubs who represented the Premier League in the Champions League this season, before United’s early exit, have huge fanbases outside the UK and all have investors or owners from foreign shores.

With huge numbers of international players and managers in the Premier League it is little surprise that such high numbers of fans are heading to watch games in England.

London is of course one of the world’s top tourist destinations and the cosmopolitan nature of Chelsea football club means they attract higher ratio of spectators from overseas than any other top flight club, according to data released by Ticketbis.net. Furthermore, at Chelsea and Manchester United ticket prices are cheaper for Champions League matches than Premier League games on the secondary ticket sales market, again underlining the appeal of the domestic game, even if things are not quite going to plan for either side so far in the 2015-16 campaign.

Ticketbis.net found that 28.05% of overseas buyers for Premier League games last season went to see Chelsea. The draw of London is clear to see, as Arsenal welcomed the second highest share of visitors from abroad to their league fixtures with 26.46%. Manchester United are well known for attracting fans from abroad and they sat third in the ‘foreigners league table’ standings on 15.91%.

Champions League tickets for United resell at an average price of £97, much lower than for Premier League games at £171. Similarly for Chelsea domestic league matches cost an average of £164 to attend on the open market, but that price drops to £119 per ticket for Champions League matches.

In contrast, average resale ticket prices for Champions League games at Arsenal (£165) and Manchester City (£147) are slightly more expensive than Premier League games – which on average cost £164 and £133 to attend at Arsenal and City respectively.

The figures also highlight the fact that Americans are confirmed as the Premier League’s biggest foreign fans buying resale tickets, being the only country to appear in the top three nationalities of overseas supporters that buy tickets for each Premier League ground.

The rapid growth of football or ‘soccer’ in the United States is demonstrated by the findings. No less than 38 Americans have played in the English top flight since 1992, while a growing number of ex-Premier League stars are making the trip across the pond to play in Major League Soccer.

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