Bitcoin Just Did Something It Has Never Done in a Bear Market — and Wall Street Is Paying Attention

Bitcoin crossed a line it had never crossed in a bear market, somewhere between the cacophony of cryptocurrency Twitter and the unusually quiet trading desks on Park Avenue. Three green monthly closings in a row. Analysts are constantly returning to that point. In about fifteen years of trading history, Bitcoin has never managed to put together three consecutive positive months while still in a confirmed bear phase. This may seem insignificant at first, but give it some thought. Never once. And yet here it is, hovering over $80,000 after being trapped below a declining trendline for almost six months, rejecting every rally like a bouncer at a quiet bar.

Tom Lee, who frequently appears on financial television to the point where even his detractors have committed his opinions to memory, sounded different when he took the stage at Consensus Miami last week. less dramatic. more strategic. His argument was straightforward: the decline from that $126,000 October high is, in his opinion, over if Bitcoin closes May above $76,000. Watching him deliver this gives me the impression that even the perma-bulls are sick of the cacophony and want the chart to read more clearly. It’s difficult to ignore how much the room paid attention.

The timing of this moment is what makes it unique. For the first time since November, the Bull Market Support Band—a 20-week simple and 21-week exponential moving average that traders use as a rough barrier between bull and bear regimes—was reclaimed. In 2019, 2023, and early 2025, Bitcoin made the same move following a protracted period below the band. The subsequent rally was not insignificant. We’re talking about gains of 50%, occasionally 175%, in a matter of months. From the sidelines, the traders who dismissed it as a bounce observed the others.

However, holding a level and regaining it are two different things. In recent months, Bitcoin has knocked on the underside of this band multiple times and, on a few occasions, slipped back embarrassingly quickly. Here, volume is the key. Not the thin air that lifted previous rallies, but actual buying pressure. If the 14-week RSI doesn’t remain above 50, this entire setup runs the risk of turning into one of those headfakes that give overconfident traders tuition bills.

The attitude of Wall Street is really intriguing. The corporate Bitcoin giant Strategy, under the leadership of Michael Saylor, used to reiterate its never-sell maxim like scripture. During the May 5 earnings call, management discreetly acknowledged that they would sell Bitcoin to pay dividends when doing so would be advantageous. Absolutism broke. Smaller and damaged by a 24.8% decline in revenue, Sequans has already suffered $11.7 million in losses as a result of winding down Bitcoin holdings to pay off convertible debt. It serves as a reminder that corporate conviction was altered by the bear market in ways that the bull market was unable to.

Additionally, there is an odd undercurrent: the core developers of Bitcoin are publicly discussing whether to permanently freeze Satoshi Nakamoto’s approximately 1,096,358 BTC stash, which is estimated to be worth $89 billion. A philosophical discussion in any other year. It seems symbolic in this instance, as if the network is assessing itself before determining its next course of action.

Nobody really knows if this is the beginning of a true recovery or just another false dawn. The macro backdrop is brittle. In a week, the technical work could be undone by a stronger dollar or another wave of equity weakness. However, the narrative and the chart are pointing in the same direction for the first time since October. It’s worth keeping a close eye on just that.