Coin Stock Is No Longer Just for Crypto Bros — Here’s Why Wall Street Is Finally Paying Attention

Some investors check Coinbase’s stock price obsessively, anxiously, and with a vague sense that the outcome will alter their mood for the day, much like someone else might check the weather. Many of those investors are currently having a rough morning.

The overall cryptocurrency market has been cooling for months, and the price of coins is currently around $161, down almost 32% since January. However, considering what Coinbase has been quietly developing, leaving the company completely would be like leaving a party too early.

When Coinbase first started out, it was nothing like what it is now. In 2012, Brian Armstrong, a former engineer at Airbnb who had been experimenting with the early bitcoin ecosystem, joined Y Combinator with the relatively modest goal of making it simpler for average people to buy and sell bitcoin. A Goldman Sachs trader named Fred Ehrsam joined as a co-founder after discovering Armstrong’s posts on Reddit.

It proved to be an exceptionally successful combination of technical ambition and financial intuition. Coinbase had one million users by 2014. It was valued at almost $47 billion on its first day of direct listing on the Nasdaq in 2021. At $328.28, the stock closed. It was referred to as a turning point in the legitimacy of cryptocurrency.

Turbulence is rare when such momentum persists, and Coinbase has experienced its fair share. In 2022, layoffs reduced the workforce by roughly 18%. A dispute with the SEC regarding a proposed loan product. the Office of Foreign Assets Control’s regulatory review.

In 2021, there was a display glitch that momentarily informed users that they were trillionaires. It sounds almost comical until you consider the support calls that ensued. The business has continued to grow despite everything. It’s possible that Coinbase excels at surviving under duress more than almost anything else.

Recently, there has been simultaneous pressure from two directions. The renewed tensions surrounding the Iran conflict are partly to blame for the decline in global risk appetite. Additionally, sentiment toward cryptocurrencies, which was extremely hot for the majority of 2025, has simply cooled. On March 30, 2026, the research firm Bernstein reduced its price targets for Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure Technologies, lowering Coinbase’s target from $440 to $330 while maintaining its Outperform ratings for all three.

That’s a crucial distinction. It is not capitulation to lower a target while maintaining a bullish rating. It’s an adjustment. Bernstein basically argues that the selloff is a reflection of short-term pressures rather than long-term harm to the company.

However, it’s difficult to ignore the fact that Coinbase is dealing with a particular short-term issue that transcends sentiment. Spot trading volumes are about 30% lower than they were in the fourth quarter of 2025, which directly affects the type of revenue that the business depends on the most. As a result, Bernstein reduced its 2026 earnings-per-share projection by 44%, to $5.97.

That’s a big change. However, analysts stuck to their prediction of 26% compound annual revenue growth through 2027, relying on something that most coverage ignores: Coinbase owns about 50% of Circle’s USDC income distributions, which provides recurring revenue that doesn’t fluctuate with trading volumes like transaction fees do.

The company’s most recent move is intriguing precisely because of that revenue diversification. American homebuyers can now use Bitcoin or USDC as collateral for mortgage down payments thanks to a partnership between Coinbase and Better Home & Finance. The product focuses on Fannie Mae-backed conforming loans; these aren’t unique hedge fund instruments. These are the typical mortgages used annually by millions of households.

The structure has safeguards to lessen the risk of volatility for borrowers, such as no margin calls on price fluctuations and liquidation risk that only arises after 60 days in a row of nonpayment. Members of Coinbase One receive a 1% rebate, a loyalty incentive that shows the business values keeping customers as much as attracting new ones.

How many borrowers will actually use this is still unknown. Many homeowners just don’t yet have the institutional trust in cryptocurrency that is necessary to turn over Bitcoin as mortgage collateral. The legal framework governing cryptocurrency collateral in compliant loans is still developing.

Furthermore, Coinbase’s current exposure to the state of the housing market is a practical rather than theoretical addition to its risk profile. However, this could develop into something structurally significant if the product becomes popular and the eligible collateral eventually includes tokenized stocks or real estate assets in addition to Bitcoin and USDC.

It appears that Coinbase has been steadily advancing toward a time when its platform will operate more like a financial operating system than a trading desk. the collaboration with Google Cloud. the introduction of its own Ethereum layer 2 blockchain. integration with Apple Pay. The Coinbase International Exchange for trading derivatives outside of the United States.

The license from Bermuda. Each of these doesn’t alter the plot on its own. When taken as a whole, they point to a business attempting to lessen its reliance on the one uncontrollable factor: whether cryptocurrency prices are increasing quickly enough to thrill individual traders. Years before the data confirmed the doubters, Tesla had similar concerns about its potential to expand beyond a niche product. Although that comparison isn’t flawless, it also has some significance.

From the outside, the coin stock situation appears to be more of an interval than a collapse. In certain areas, the business is profitable; in others, it is growing structurally; at the moment, it is discounted on both. Bernstein is correct that there is a significant difference between the stock’s current price and the analyst’s targets; in Coinbase’s case, this difference is almost half.

Depending on how you view the upcoming 18 months for mortgage markets, cryptocurrency markets, and the particular wager that digital assets will become infrastructure rather than speculation, you can determine whether that discount is a warning or an opportunity. There isn’t yet a clear response to that question. However, it’s a better question than the one that most investors had about Coinbase in 2012, when it was just two people and a Y Combinator check attempting to make buying bitcoin a little less confusing.