Rolls-Royce Share Price at 51.8x P/E as SpaceX Analysts Eye 69% Upside

The Rolls-Royce share price is trading at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 51.8, more than three times the FTSE 100 average of around 16, even as the engineering group’s half-year results confirmed the underlying business is firing on all cylinders. SpaceX, meanwhile, has settled back near its IPO price of $135 after a volatile opening, with analyst consensus pointing to 69% upside by August 2027.

Rolls-Royce share price: the numbers behind the valuation stretch

The 30 July half-year results press release showed Rolls-Royce (RR) delivering underlying revenue of £11,279m in H1 2026, up 26% year on year, with underlying operating profit rising 46% to £2.5bn and an underlying operating margin of 22.5%, compared with 19.1% in H1 2025.

The divisional picture is encouraging across the board. Civil Aerospace held its operating margin at 25.3%, but the bigger moves came in Defence, which expanded from 15.4% to 21.0%, and Power Systems, which moved from 15.3% to 20.3%. Large engine MRO output rose 13% in the half, with a 35% year-on-year increase in large engine refurbishments, and the group says it has effectively eliminated aircraft on ground (AOG) in Civil Aerospace.

Free cash flow came in at £1,964m for the half (H1 2025: £1,582m), lifting net cash to £2,136m at 30 June 2026. Basic underlying earnings per share were 22.17p, up from 15.74p a year earlier. The board is paying an interim dividend of 6.0p per share in September 2026 and has completed £1.4bn of a planned £2.5bn share buyback for the full year, part of a multi-year programme totalling £7bn–£9bn across 2026 to 2028.

Full-year guidance was raised again. Rolls-Royce’s investor results page shows the group now targeting underlying operating profit of £4.7bn–£4.9bn for 2026, up from prior guidance of £4.0bn–£4.2bn, and free cash flow of £3.8bn–£4.0bn, up from £3.6bn–£3.8bn. Return on capital reached 22.0% (H1 2025: 16.9%).

Credit agencies took note. During H1 2026, Moody’s upgraded Rolls-Royce to A3 and Fitch to A–, both with stable outlooks. S&P Global affirmed BBB+ and moved the outlook to positive. Total liquidity stands at £9.0bn, comprising £6.5bn in cash and cash equivalents, against gross debt of £2.7bn.

The execution is hard to fault. The valuation is another matter. At 51.8 times trailing earnings, the shares are priced for a continuation of CEO Tufan Erginbilgiç’s turnaround at full pace. Any stumble, guidance trim, or macro shock, and the multiple will compress sharply. The 16 analysts covering RR produce a 12-month consensus target of 1,701p, implying around 10% upside. That is not a ringing endorsement from current levels, and it is broadly consistent with the idea that the easy gains are behind this stock.

Power Systems offers one longer-dated growth hook. Rolls-Royce now expects 25% growth in Power Systems power generation original equipment revenues to 2030, revised upward from a prior target of 20%, driven by data centre demand. That is a real tailwind, but it is already priced into a 51.8x multiple.

SpaceX: lock-up expiry is the next test

SpaceX listed its Class A Common Stock at $135 per share, as set out in the Canadian Prospectus filed with the SEC, covering 555,555,555 shares. The UK prospectus describes SpaceX as ‘the only company building the integrated hardware and software infrastructure of the future across space, connectivity, and AI.’

The shares rocketed from that $135 starting price before crashing 50%, then recovered 15% on Friday 7 August to close at $133. The catalyst was Q2 results: revenues of $7.8bn, up 92% year on year, while the quarterly group loss narrowed from $1bn to $541m. The Starlink connectivity business is profitable. The AI segment generated revenues of $2.56bn (tripled year on year), but infrastructure investment ran to $15.8bn in the quarter.

The next structural test is the lock-up. Under the SpaceX 424B4 prospectus filed with the SEC, substantially all pre-IPO shares become eligible for sale 181 days after the prospectus date, subject to volume and manner-of-sale limitations under Rules 144 and 701. That window will concentrate minds.

The 33 analysts covering SpaceX are markedly more optimistic than their RR counterparts: consensus sits at $225 for August 2027, which would represent a 69% gain from Friday’s close. Consensus on a stock this new, with infrastructure losses still running at this scale, deserves heavy discounting. But the asymmetry is clear: RR offers refinement of an established turnaround; SpaceX offers a binary on whether AI and connectivity infrastructure spending converts to profit at speed.

The lock-up expiry, not the next quarterly print, is the nearer-term pivot point for SpaceX holders.