POET Stock Climbs 50% in a Week — And Nobody’s Quite Sure Why

POET Technologies is one of those stocks that make professional analysts a little crazy. The Toronto-based photonics company, which is traded on the Nasdaq under the ticker POET, closed last week up 50% after rising by about 14% on Monday. That was not the result of a blockbuster contract or a clean earnings beat. It originated from a more complex combination of sector tailwinds, retail enthusiasm, and the kind of speculative belief that characterizes this peculiar period in AI-adjacent investing.

The figures themselves are nearly depressing. POET continues to have low revenue, a market capitalization of about $1.67 billion, and no price-to-earnings ratio since there are no earnings to compare. However, retail traders on Stocktwits continue to push the stock higher, keeping an eye on screens late into the night for any hint of news, despite the stock’s 73% year-to-date gain. The gap between faith and fundamentals is difficult to ignore.

The company produces a platform known as the Optical Interposer, which combines electronic and photonic devices into a single module. Put simply, it’s a method of transferring data via light instead of electricity, which is crucial given that hyperscalers like AWS and Microsoft invest billions in AI data centers that have bandwidth and heat issues. POET is located in the quiet, technical area of the business that everyone is suddenly interested in learning more about. Despite the lack of revenue evidence, investors appear to think the company could grow into a minor but crucial supplier in the photonics build-out.

The Marvell fiasco came next. Citing a breach of confidentiality, POET revealed in late April that orders connected to Marvell Technology—through its acquisition of Celestial AI—had been canceled. In a single session, the stock fell 47%. Days earlier, CFO Thomas Mika had been candid with Stocktwits about the orders, and it’s possible that this candor killed them. It was a painful lesson in the brittleness of narrative-driven momentum for a business that depends so heavily on perception.

The speed at which the stock recovered is remarkable. POET shares had made up nearly all of the lost ground by the next week. The introduction of Defiance ETFs’ POEL, a daily 2x-long single-stock leveraged ETF that increases trading flows around POET, contributed to some of that recovery. POET’s announcement of a new $5 million order from an unidentified client, with deliveries planned for the second half of 2026, was partially responsible. Additionally, MACOM’s double-digit increase, Microchip Technology’s $1.31 billion quarterly revenue report, and the Nasdaq Composite’s ascent above 26,000 were all part of the larger surge in semiconductor and AI infrastructure names.

Risks haven’t disappeared, though. With a deadline of June 29 for lead plaintiffs, the legal firm Faruqi & Faruqi is looking into possible securities violations related to the company’s disclosures and tax status. POET reported a $42.7 million net loss for the fourth quarter of 2025, but a large portion of that was due to a non-cash warrant valuation charge that the company anticipates will decrease. At $3.36, liquidity per share is currently comfortable, but continuous losses will erode it.

The test will be the Q1 report on May 20. Analysts predict a smaller loss of 5 cents per share and revenue of about $350,000, which is modest, almost embarrassing, but growing. Later this year, Malaysia is expected to start producing 800G optical engines, with a goal of producing over 30,000 units by 2026. Whether POET achieves those goals or falters once more will probably determine whether this rally was feverish or prophetic. As of right now, the skeptics continue to observe while the believers continue to make purchases. This story seems like it’s only halfway done.