QCOM Stock Hits $228 — And Even the Bears Are Starting to Sweat

Simply by listening to the tape, you can tell that something odd is going on with Qualcomm. After a run that has now stretched about 80% since the low of $121.99 on April 7, shares opened Monday at $219.09, rising another 8% in a single session. Such figures are not expected to occur in a matter of weeks for a $230 billion semiconductor company. Of course, they do occur. However, it is rare to make a move without some underlying motivation and to leave a trail of doubters in its wake.

There is a trail. Midway through April, JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Neutral, lowering its target to $140 and indicating a likely low double-digit decline in smartphone shipments in 2026. Barclays returned with a $130 target and an Underweight rating. Only twelve of the 39 analysts monitoring QCOM currently give it a buy or outperform rating, while 21 place it at hold. The average target on the Street is close to $174.84, which is significantly below the current price of the stock. It’s difficult to ignore the gap.

However, money continues to come in. A new position of 4,174 shares valued at approximately $714,000 was opened by Asahi Life Asset Management. Last quarter, Brighton Jones LLC more than doubled its investment. Last week, Daiwa Securities upgraded the stock to Outperform and raised its price target from $140 to $225, claiming that Qualcomm might finally be re-rated by the market in the same manner as Arm Holdings. Reading the recent coverage gives the impression that investors’ perceptions of this company have changed, even though it’s unclear if this change is permanent or not.

Data centers are primarily to blame. Qualcomm has secured a custom silicon program with a major hyperscaler, with initial shipments scheduled for December 2026, according to CEO Cristiano Amon’s confirmation during the Q2 earnings call. It’s a multi-generational engagement, he said. Additionally, he mentioned something more subdued but perhaps more intriguing: Qualcomm’s CPU architecture is exceptionally well suited to the CPU-bound nature of agentic AI workloads. The message was clearly understood by investors, who have been investing heavily in anything related to AI infrastructure for the past two years. On the day of the earnings beat, the stock increased by more than 15%.

However, the underlying figures are inconsistent. Revenue from automobiles reached a record $1.3 billion, up 38% from the previous year. IoT increased by 9%. However, as Chinese OEMs reduced production due to a shortage of memory, phones, which are still the core of the industry, dropped 13% to $6 billion. The Q3 forecast was modest, ranging from $9.2 to $10 billion. And hanging over everything is Apple, which is generally anticipated to use Qualcomm modems following the release of the iPhone in the fall of 2026. In fiscal 2027, that alone eliminates about $2 billion in QCT revenue.

The obvious question is whether the data center story is strong enough to support a stock that is currently trading at about 22 times forward earnings. Qualcomm has previously encountered skepticism. Intel confronted them. AMD also did. Those doubts can age poorly at times. They don’t all the time. Which version of this story survives will likely depend on the June 24 Investor Day. Until then, traders are buying regardless, albeit a little uneasily, as they typically do when momentum and skepticism collide on the same chart.