Moderna Stock Is Up Triple Digits This Year — But the Real Test Comes on November 6
Moderna continued one of the market’s more unexpected runs this year, closing Wednesday at $214.16, up almost 3% on the day. Since January, the stock has increased by more than 100%, putting it ahead of Micron, Nvidia, and most other companies that investors would have predicted would lead the 2026 market. It may seem odd to write that, but here we are.
This run’s company is not particularly new. The majority of people are familiar with Moderna from the early pandemic years, when its mRNA-based coronavirus vaccine emerged as one of the most quickly developed and extensively used in history. Because of that product, Moderna became well-known and briefly became one of the world’s most valuable biotech companies. After that, revenue plummeted, demand declined, and the stock was quietly written off for years by those who weren’t keeping a close eye on it. $22.29 is the 52-week low. $254.48 is the peak. You can tell how drastically the story has changed just by looking at that range.
Cancer was what altered the situation. In ten clinical trials, including a Phase 3 study in melanoma carried out in conjunction with Merck’s Keytruda, Moderna’s personalized cancer vaccine candidate, intismeran autogene, is being investigated. Moderna stock surged 177% in a single session in August after the companies released preliminary results demonstrating the combination met important survival goals, specifically a 42% reduction in the risk of melanoma recurrence or death compared to Keytruda alone. That kind of action is not motivated by hazy optimism. It occurs when a trial’s outcome appears to be truly significant.
In recent days, there was some volatility due to a data leak that occurred before the New England Journal of Medicine’s full publication. As investors processed the early disclosure, shares temporarily declined. However, when the complete results were released, they validated what August’s initial analysis had indicated. The stock rose as the market stabilized. Some of the selling during that period might have been investors locking in gains following an exceptional run rather than a true change in their perspective on the science. Nevertheless, the event served as a helpful reminder that hope is just as important to Moderna’s current valuation as certainty.
On November 6, Moderna will release its third-quarter earnings, which is the next significant event on the schedule. What investors should be keeping an eye on is a hotly debated topic. Revenue figures are important. The company reported $145 million in Q2 with a modest 2.11% year-over-year growth, but it significantly exceeded forecasts. Revenue could increase by about 10% over the course of the year, according to management, and advice on that topic will be given careful consideration. Early feedback on the rollout of the company’s mRNA flu vaccine, which was approved by the FDA in August 2026, will also be important. The vaccine was introduced last month.
To be honest, though, the majority of attention will be on any remarks made by management regarding the timeline for the cancer vaccine. There is still a significant gap between clinical success and commercial reality because FDA approval for the melanoma indication is not anticipated until 2027. With an Overweight rating, Piper Sandler analysts have increased their price target to $230. After the post-rally retreat, William Blair and Citi have become more circumspect. Given the company’s current situation—truly encouraging data, but still a year or more away from the approval and revenue that would support the current share price—that split seems about right.
What strikes me as I watch this develop is how much Moderna’s story has evolved in just two years. After its COVID vaccine revenue dried up, the company was all but abandoned, but now it’s being mentioned alongside revolutionary oncology players. The mRNA platform used to deliver the pandemic vaccine is currently being used in personalized tumor biology to teach the immune system to target the unique cancer mutations found in each patient. The underlying science is the same, but the problem is much more difficult. Although it is genuinely unclear if the market is pricing that potential correctly at $214 per share, the question itself is no longer regarded as naive.
