BA Stock: Boeing Has a $745 Billion Backlog and Still Can’t Turn a Profit — What That Means for Investors
Analysts are employed by a specific type of stock. The ones that are truly difficult to read, where the bull case and the bear case are both respectable and supported by the same set of facts, are the ones that are neither the obvious winners nor the obvious disasters. At the moment, Boeing is that type of stock. As of November 3, BA shares are trading at about $175, having slightly recovered from a 52-week low a few days prior. The stock is currently about 30% below its January peak of $254, down nearly 20% year to date. That gap is worth looking into for a company with a $745 billion total order backlog.
CEO Kelly Ortberg’s multiyear free cash flow outlook, which fell short of analysts’ expectations, was the most recent trigger for the selloff. It’s a significant miss. Boeing’s commercial production has been slower than expected, especially on the 737 MAX, and the company has invested a large amount of money in a Navy fighter jet contract, which increases the pressure on short-term spending. On that news, the stock fell about 10% in a single session. However, a well-known investment club declared a few days later that it was actively purchasing shares at about $173, clearly labeling the post-earnings decline an overreaction. That led to a recuperation.
The underlying narrative, which is more nuanced than either the bulls or the bears usually make it sound, is unaffected by any of this. Boeing’s revenue for the third quarter of 2026 was $24.19 billion, a positive increase of roughly 4% year over year. However, losses per share persisted, a trend that is now long enough to cease being characterized as transient. The defense backlog reached $101 billion, and the defense segment grew 15% in Q3, demonstrating some real strength. That is true. Boeing is in a unique position for a number of sole-source awards, including a U.S. Space Force contract potentially worth nearly $946 million related to satellite network support that only Boeing can provide due to its exclusive ownership of the underlying software and data. Defense contracts are long-standing, predictable sources of income.
The 737-10’s FAA certification under the 2020 Aircraft Certification, Safety, and Accountability Act was a major development for the commercial sector. This eliminates a regulatory burden that had been hanging over the stock for some time and completes the 737 MAX family. The largest-capacity model, the 737-10, already accounts for a sizable portion of unfulfilled MAX orders. Obtaining certification opens a door that was previously closed, which is important even though it doesn’t instantly improve cash flow or production rates.
The Dataliner AI platform and 767-300 freighter conversion agreements, which Icelease recently signed for up to three converted freighters, are further indications that Boeing is expanding its revenue streams into digital tools and services. Compared to commercial aircraft manufacturing, these companies are less dramatic, which is probably a good thing at the moment.
After the earnings selloff, Citi kept its Buy rating and put Boeing on a 90-day upside catalyst watch. When a major institutional desk uses language like that, it usually indicates that at least some professional money sees the current situation as an opportunity. Depending on your question, it may or may not be one. If the question is whether Boeing has a legitimate order book and is still relevant in the long run, the answer is most likely yes. It is far less certain whether the upcoming year will see a significant improvement in free cash flow and a recovery of margin.
The disparity between what Boeing has on paper and what it’s actually turning into cash is what’s difficult to ignore as this develops. There is a huge backlog. The pipeline for defense is expanding. The certification for the 737-10 is complete. The stock is currently trading close to a multi-year low, and losses are still occurring. Eventually, either the backlog ceases to feel like the asset it seems to be, or the execution improves and the stock reflects it. This is not an easy purchase for Boeing. It’s not the same as saying it won’t happen; rather, it’s a wager on a difficult turnaround that is taking longer than anticipated.
