BCC says wider AI adoption could lift UK GDP more than 10% by 2031

Widespread use of artificial intelligence could leave UK GDP more than 10% higher by the end of 2031 than it would otherwise be, according to new analysis for the British Chambers of Commerce published on 4 November.

That is the higher of two scenarios, in which AI lifts productivity by 57% across 12% of work tasks by 2030.

The moderate scenario assumes a 35% productivity gain across 4% of work tasks by 2030, which would leave GDP around 2% higher by the end of 2031.

The modelling covers the period from 2027 to 2030 and rests on two adoption scenarios researched by Anthropic, the AI developer.

The BCC published the figures alongside a book of essays, produced with BDO, on how the UK can become an “AI adoption superpower”.

Shevaun Haviland, the BCC’s director general, said the modelling showed that “going full throttle on AI adoption could leave the economy 10% larger by 2031”.

She added: “That’s a huge opportunity, but it’s not guaranteed.”

The Chancellor announced more than £700m of AI-related investment in the Budget, mainly for infrastructure and security.

Haviland called that investment “significant and welcome”, but said the BCC wanted “the same level of ambition on business adoption”.

She described that as “the missing piece of the AI jigsaw”.

The book calls on government to go much further by driving an ambitious business adoption strategy.

Haviland said the strategy should incentivise investment, focus on skills and be underpinned by a regulatory framework covering safety and security concerns.

In her foreword she urges government to work with business on leadership, skills, investment and practical support.

Contributors include the tech entrepreneurs Tabitha Goldstaub and Baroness Martha Lane-Fox, David Black of Google UK and Ollie Whitehouse of the National Cyber Security Centre.

The book itself says each chapter was written independently and that inclusion does not mean the BCC endorses every proposal.

One chapter cites a separate estimate from PwC UK that GDP could be up to 10.3% higher in 2030, which is not part of the BCC modelling.

Separate government figures show how far business use of AI has spread so far.

In the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology’s 2026 survey, 32% of UK businesses used at least one AI technology.

That compares with 16% in the 2025 survey, so use doubled in a year.

Uptake was higher among larger firms, at 52%, and in information and communication, at 61%, than in real estate at 45% or business services and administration at 39%.

Half of adopters reported an overall productivity increase, although the survey described the gains as generally modest.

Only 14% of businesses considered AI tools to be of high or critical importance to their operations.

Limited skills, expertise or knowledge affected 67% of businesses that had adopted AI and 78% of those planning to do so.

The book is part of a wider BCC programme on AI adoption, which includes an AI Adoption Summit in London on Tuesday 8 December.