Surveyors see house prices slipping further while official data shows 0.9% annual rise

Surveyors reported a net balance of -36% for house prices over the past three months in October, down from -34% in the previous survey, RICS said on Monday.

A net balance is the share of surveyors reporting rises minus the share reporting falls, so a reading of -36% does not mean prices fell by 36%.

The gauge has turned more negative in each of the past two months, which RICS said signals modest downward pressure on prices is continuing.

The survey headline said national house prices were “still reportedly edging lower”, with forward-looking measures revised down.

Sales and prices are now expected to “decline a little further over the next twelve months”, said the survey of 443 branches, which produced 235 responses.

RICS pointed to mortgage costs as the main drag, citing the “renewed rise in mortgage interest rates over recent months weighing on buyer demand”.

For the year ahead, the house price expectations series registered a net balance of -17% in October, which RICS described as a modest easing in prices over the next twelve months.

Sales expectations also weakened, with the three-month measure deteriorating to a net balance of -11%, alongside the -17% reading for the twelve-month outlook.

Not every area is weak. RICS said prices continue to rise firmly across Northern Ireland, even as most other parts of the UK report softer conditions.

The official picture is less gloomy. The UK House Price Index put the average UK home at £273,037 in August.

That was up 0.9% on a year earlier, and 0.3% higher than in July, with the index standing at 104.6.

The annual rate has slowed in each of the latest three months, the Land Registry series said, from 1.5% in June to 1.2% in July and 0.9% in August.

Month by month, prices fell 0.6% in June, rose 0.5% in July and added 0.3% in August, taking the average from £270,690 in June to £273,037.

The average in August was also above the £269,819 recorded in October 2025, the earliest month shown in the latest series.

The two measures differ in what they capture. The RICS survey records what surveyors say is happening and what they expect, while the index is built from completed sales.

The index uses sales data from HM Land Registry, Registers of Scotland and Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, and is calculated by the Office for National Statistics.

Official data lags the survey, so the August reading predates the October survey responses and the latest drop in the surveyors’ price balance.

The Land Registry cautions that low sales numbers in some local authorities can make estimates volatile, and says those areas are better judged against longer-term trends than single months.

RICS says its survey is used by the government, the Bank of England and other institutions including the IMF as an indicator of current and future conditions in residential sales and lettings. More detail is on its survey page.

The next RICS survey, covering November, is due on 10 December 2026, when its forecast of further softening can be checked against a fresh reading.